Apple’s consistent annual iPhone cadence, reinforced by multiple reports from Bloomberg and MacRumors, drives the 98.6% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are widely expected to debut at a September 9 keynote and ship around September 18, following the company’s established pattern of fall launches for flagship devices. While the base iPhone 18 and lower-cost variants may shift to early 2027 amid a split schedule that also includes a new foldable model, traders view the premium releases as sufficient to resolve the market affirmatively. No supply-chain disruptions or regulatory hurdles have surfaced that would plausibly derail the September window, though last-minute production delays for advanced components remain a low-probability tail risk before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated99% chance
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
99% chance
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone cadence, reinforced by multiple reports from Bloomberg and MacRumors, drives the 98.6% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are widely expected to debut at a September 9 keynote and ship around September 18, following the company’s established pattern of fall launches for flagship devices. While the base iPhone 18 and lower-cost variants may shift to early 2027 amid a split schedule that also includes a new foldable model, traders view the premium releases as sufficient to resolve the market affirmatively. No supply-chain disruptions or regulatory hurdles have surfaced that would plausibly derail the September window, though last-minute production delays for advanced components remain a low-probability tail risk before the event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,240End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone cadence, reinforced by multiple reports from Bloomberg and MacRumors, drives the 98.6% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are widely expected to debut at a September 9 keynote and ship around September 18, following the company’s established pattern of fall launches for flagship devices. While the base iPhone 18 and lower-cost variants may shift to early 2027 amid a split schedule that also includes a new foldable model, traders view the premium releases as sufficient to resolve the market affirmatively. No supply-chain disruptions or regulatory hurdles have surfaced that would plausibly derail the September window, though last-minute production delays for advanced components remain a low-probability tail risk before the event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,240End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s consistent annual iPhone cadence, reinforced by multiple reports from Bloomberg and MacRumors, drives the 98.6% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are widely expected to debut at a September 9 keynote and ship around September 18, following the company’s established pattern of fall launches for flagship devices. While the base iPhone 18 and lower-cost variants may shift to early 2027 amid a split schedule that also includes a new foldable model, traders view the premium releases as sufficient to resolve the market affirmatively. No supply-chain disruptions or regulatory hurdles have surfaced that would plausibly derail the September window, though last-minute production delays for advanced components remain a low-probability tail risk before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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