The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention remains in its early written-pleadings phase, with Israel’s Counter-Memorial filed in March 2026 and the Court’s May 2026 Order setting South Africa’s Reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s Rejoinder for May 2029. Oral hearings and a final merits judgment on whether genocide occurred are therefore unlikely before 2029 or later. At the ICC, arrest warrants issued in November 2024 against Israeli leaders address only war crimes and crimes against humanity, with no genocide charges filed and confirmation or trial proceedings still pending. No other international court has advanced a genocide determination on this timeline. These extended procedural schedules and narrow charge scopes underpin trader consensus that a formal finding of genocide by December 31, 2027, faces substantial structural barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$99,446 Vol.
$99,446 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
13% chance
$99,446 Vol.
$99,446 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention remains in its early written-pleadings phase, with Israel’s Counter-Memorial filed in March 2026 and the Court’s May 2026 Order setting South Africa’s Reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s Rejoinder for May 2029. Oral hearings and a final merits judgment on whether genocide occurred are therefore unlikely before 2029 or later. At the ICC, arrest warrants issued in November 2024 against Israeli leaders address only war crimes and crimes against humanity, with no genocide charges filed and confirmation or trial proceedings still pending. No other international court has advanced a genocide determination on this timeline. These extended procedural schedules and narrow charge scopes underpin trader consensus that a formal finding of genocide by December 31, 2027, faces substantial structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,446End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention remains in its early written-pleadings phase, with Israel’s Counter-Memorial filed in March 2026 and the Court’s May 2026 Order setting South Africa’s Reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s Rejoinder for May 2029. Oral hearings and a final merits judgment on whether genocide occurred are therefore unlikely before 2029 or later. At the ICC, arrest warrants issued in November 2024 against Israeli leaders address only war crimes and crimes against humanity, with no genocide charges filed and confirmation or trial proceedings still pending. No other international court has advanced a genocide determination on this timeline. These extended procedural schedules and narrow charge scopes underpin trader consensus that a formal finding of genocide by December 31, 2027, faces substantial structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,446End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention remains in its early written-pleadings phase, with Israel’s Counter-Memorial filed in March 2026 and the Court’s May 2026 Order setting South Africa’s Reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s Rejoinder for May 2029. Oral hearings and a final merits judgment on whether genocide occurred are therefore unlikely before 2029 or later. At the ICC, arrest warrants issued in November 2024 against Israeli leaders address only war crimes and crimes against humanity, with no genocide charges filed and confirmation or trial proceedings still pending. No other international court has advanced a genocide determination on this timeline. These extended procedural schedules and narrow charge scopes underpin trader consensus that a formal finding of genocide by December 31, 2027, faces substantial structural barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions