Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil seeks reelection in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District against Democrat Mitchell Berman, who won the August 11 primary. The district’s R+2 partisan voting index and three decades of Republican control underpin the 64% Republican probability on Polymarket, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns. A recent Impact Research poll showed the race essentially tied after the Democratic primary, highlighting Berman’s potential to compete in this southeast Wisconsin seat. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the implied trader consensus that structural factors favor the incumbent despite Democratic targeting and early general-election polling. The November 3 general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign developments or turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-01 House Election Winner
WI-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
63%
Democratic Party
36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,131 Vol.
63%
Democratic Party
$4,622 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil seeks reelection in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District against Democrat Mitchell Berman, who won the August 11 primary. The district’s R+2 partisan voting index and three decades of Republican control underpin the 64% Republican probability on Polymarket, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns. A recent Impact Research poll showed the race essentially tied after the Democratic primary, highlighting Berman’s potential to compete in this southeast Wisconsin seat. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the implied trader consensus that structural factors favor the incumbent despite Democratic targeting and early general-election polling. The November 3 general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign developments or turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$9,753End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil seeks reelection in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District against Democrat Mitchell Berman, who won the August 11 primary. The district’s R+2 partisan voting index and three decades of Republican control underpin the 64% Republican probability on Polymarket, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns. A recent Impact Research poll showed the race essentially tied after the Democratic primary, highlighting Berman’s potential to compete in this southeast Wisconsin seat. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the implied trader consensus that structural factors favor the incumbent despite Democratic targeting and early general-election polling. The November 3 general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign developments or turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,753End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bryan Steil seeks reelection in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District against Democrat Mitchell Berman, who won the August 11 primary. The district’s R+2 partisan voting index and three decades of Republican control underpin the 64% Republican probability on Polymarket, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns. A recent Impact Research poll showed the race essentially tied after the Democratic primary, highlighting Berman’s potential to compete in this southeast Wisconsin seat. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with the implied trader consensus that structural factors favor the incumbent despite Democratic targeting and early general-election polling. The November 3 general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign developments or turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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