The Wisconsin 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+21 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Mark Pocan advanced from the August 11 primary with roughly 88% of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican Erik Olsen withdrew before the general election, leaving no major-party opposition on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or unforeseen write-in surge could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain remote given the district’s structural and recent electoral patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-02 House Election Winner
WI-02 House Election Winner
$100,311 Vol.
$100,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$100,311 Vol.
$100,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$60,778 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$39,533 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Wisconsin 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+21 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Mark Pocan advanced from the August 11 primary with roughly 88% of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican Erik Olsen withdrew before the general election, leaving no major-party opposition on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or unforeseen write-in surge could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain remote given the district’s structural and recent electoral patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$100,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Wisconsin 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+21 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Mark Pocan advanced from the August 11 primary with roughly 88% of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican Erik Olsen withdrew before the general election, leaving no major-party opposition on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or unforeseen write-in surge could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain remote given the district’s structural and recent electoral patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$100,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Wisconsin 2nd Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+21 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 97% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Mark Pocan advanced from the August 11 primary with roughly 88% of the vote against a minor challenger, while Republican Erik Olsen withdrew before the general election, leaving no major-party opposition on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or unforeseen write-in surge could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain remote given the district’s structural and recent electoral patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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