US naval operations, including roughly 20 warships such as carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, anchor current sentiment by enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports while protecting select commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent Iranian strikes on vessels, combined with IRGC enforcement of northern routes, have kept daily traffic well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of ~130 ships, sustaining elevated Brent and WTI crude prices, wider spreads, and higher hull and cargo insurance premiums. Traders monitor imminent data releases on transit volumes and any last-minute diplomatic signals ahead of the August 31 resolution, as sustained US presence implies continued market-implied odds favoring American and allied naval activity through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
$267,877 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
US
4%
Australia
1%
France
1%
Italy
1%
Greece
1%
UK
1%
Netherlands
<1%
Germany
<1%
$267,877 Vol.
US
$43,189 Vol.
4%
Australia
$1,285 Vol.
1%
France
$56,743 Vol.
1%
Italy
$6,203 Vol.
1%
Greece
$3,907 Vol.
1%
UK
$21,543 Vol.
1%
Netherlands
$45,330 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$89,676 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations, including roughly 20 warships such as carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, anchor current sentiment by enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports while protecting select commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent Iranian strikes on vessels, combined with IRGC enforcement of northern routes, have kept daily traffic well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of ~130 ships, sustaining elevated Brent and WTI crude prices, wider spreads, and higher hull and cargo insurance premiums. Traders monitor imminent data releases on transit volumes and any last-minute diplomatic signals ahead of the August 31 resolution, as sustained US presence implies continued market-implied odds favoring American and allied naval activity through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$267,877End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations, including roughly 20 warships such as carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, anchor current sentiment by enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports while protecting select commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent Iranian strikes on vessels, combined with IRGC enforcement of northern routes, have kept daily traffic well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of ~130 ships, sustaining elevated Brent and WTI crude prices, wider spreads, and higher hull and cargo insurance premiums. Traders monitor imminent data releases on transit volumes and any last-minute diplomatic signals ahead of the August 31 resolution, as sustained US presence implies continued market-implied odds favoring American and allied naval activity through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$267,877End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US naval operations, including roughly 20 warships such as carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers in the Gulf of Oman, anchor current sentiment by enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports while protecting select commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent Iranian strikes on vessels, combined with IRGC enforcement of northern routes, have kept daily traffic well below the pre-February 2026 baseline of ~130 ships, sustaining elevated Brent and WTI crude prices, wider spreads, and higher hull and cargo insurance premiums. Traders monitor imminent data releases on transit volumes and any last-minute diplomatic signals ahead of the August 31 resolution, as sustained US presence implies continued market-implied odds favoring American and allied naval activity through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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