**Recent Zillow Home Value Index data for the San Francisco metro area places typical home values near $1.137 million with median sale prices around $1.175 million as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of a sub-$1.176 million reading on September 30 above 90%.** Tight inventory and AI-driven demand from the tech sector have supported single-family prices in core San Francisco, yet broader metro figures reflect moderation from elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and softer condo and East Bay segments. With only weeks remaining, seasonal slowdowns and limited near-term catalysts in interest rates or employment data make a sharp upward move unlikely. Scenarios that could challenge the current pricing include an unexpected Fed rate cut boosting affordability or a surge in high-end closings that lifts the median above the threshold before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$1.176M 91%
$1.198M - $1.220M 5.3%
$1.176M - $1.198M 2.3%
$1.242M - $1.264M <1%
$40,718 Vol.
$40,718 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$1.176M
91%
$1.176M - $1.198M
2%
$1.198M - $1.220M
5%
$1.220M - $1.242M
1%
$1.242M - $1.264M
1%
$1.264M - $1.284M
1%
$1.284M+
<1%
<$1.176M 91%
$1.198M - $1.220M 5.3%
$1.176M - $1.198M 2.3%
$1.242M - $1.264M <1%
$40,718 Vol.
$40,718 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$1.176M
$17,413 Vol.
91%
$1.176M - $1.198M
$14,150 Vol.
2%
$1.198M - $1.220M
$1,980 Vol.
5%
$1.220M - $1.242M
$1,952 Vol.
1%
$1.242M - $1.264M
$3,005 Vol.
1%
$1.264M - $1.284M
$1,048 Vol.
1%
$1.284M+
$1,171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Recent Zillow Home Value Index data for the San Francisco metro area places typical home values near $1.137 million with median sale prices around $1.175 million as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of a sub-$1.176 million reading on September 30 above 90%.** Tight inventory and AI-driven demand from the tech sector have supported single-family prices in core San Francisco, yet broader metro figures reflect moderation from elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and softer condo and East Bay segments. With only weeks remaining, seasonal slowdowns and limited near-term catalysts in interest rates or employment data make a sharp upward move unlikely. Scenarios that could challenge the current pricing include an unexpected Fed rate cut boosting affordability or a surge in high-end closings that lifts the median above the threshold before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$40,718End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)**Recent Zillow Home Value Index data for the San Francisco metro area places typical home values near $1.137 million with median sale prices around $1.175 million as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of a sub-$1.176 million reading on September 30 above 90%.** Tight inventory and AI-driven demand from the tech sector have supported single-family prices in core San Francisco, yet broader metro figures reflect moderation from elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and softer condo and East Bay segments. With only weeks remaining, seasonal slowdowns and limited near-term catalysts in interest rates or employment data make a sharp upward move unlikely. Scenarios that could challenge the current pricing include an unexpected Fed rate cut boosting affordability or a surge in high-end closings that lifts the median above the threshold before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$40,718End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Zillow Home Value Index data for the San Francisco metro area places typical home values near $1.137 million with median sale prices around $1.175 million as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of a sub-$1.176 million reading on September 30 above 90%.** Tight inventory and AI-driven demand from the tech sector have supported single-family prices in core San Francisco, yet broader metro figures reflect moderation from elevated mortgage rates near 6.2% and softer condo and East Bay segments. With only weeks remaining, seasonal slowdowns and limited near-term catalysts in interest rates or employment data make a sharp upward move unlikely. Scenarios that could challenge the current pricing include an unexpected Fed rate cut boosting affordability or a surge in high-end closings that lifts the median above the threshold before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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