**Elevated housing inventory and persistent price pressure from the post-2022 correction continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value near or below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent data show the Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier) near $424,000 as of mid-2026, with July median listing prices at approximately $462,000 and sales medians reported between $435,000 and $450,000 by Unlock MLS and other trackers. Months of supply remain elevated around 4.7–5.2, accompanied by widespread price reductions and decelerating but still negative year-over-year changes. Job growth and net migration provide underlying support, yet higher mortgage rates and ample supply have outweighed demand, keeping values on a downward or flat trajectory. With only weeks until resolution and no major near-term catalysts anticipated, market-implied odds heavily favor the lowest bin as current levels and momentum align with that outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$446K 88%
$446K - $454K 3.8%
$462K - $470K 3.1%
$454K - $462K 2.8%
$88,783 Vol.
$88,783 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
88%
$446K - $454K
4%
$454K - $462K
3%
$462K - $470K
3%
$470K - $478K
3%
$478K - $486K
<1%
$486K+
1%
<$446K 88%
$446K - $454K 3.8%
$462K - $470K 3.1%
$454K - $462K 2.8%
$88,783 Vol.
$88,783 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
$31,213 Vol.
88%
$446K - $454K
$16,590 Vol.
4%
$454K - $462K
$7,136 Vol.
3%
$462K - $470K
$6,048 Vol.
3%
$470K - $478K
$12,811 Vol.
3%
$478K - $486K
$5,174 Vol.
<1%
$486K+
$9,812 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)**Elevated housing inventory and persistent price pressure from the post-2022 correction continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value near or below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent data show the Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier) near $424,000 as of mid-2026, with July median listing prices at approximately $462,000 and sales medians reported between $435,000 and $450,000 by Unlock MLS and other trackers. Months of supply remain elevated around 4.7–5.2, accompanied by widespread price reductions and decelerating but still negative year-over-year changes. Job growth and net migration provide underlying support, yet higher mortgage rates and ample supply have outweighed demand, keeping values on a downward or flat trajectory. With only weeks until resolution and no major near-term catalysts anticipated, market-implied odds heavily favor the lowest bin as current levels and momentum align with that outcome.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$88,783End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)**Elevated housing inventory and persistent price pressure from the post-2022 correction continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value near or below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent data show the Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier) near $424,000 as of mid-2026, with July median listing prices at approximately $462,000 and sales medians reported between $435,000 and $450,000 by Unlock MLS and other trackers. Months of supply remain elevated around 4.7–5.2, accompanied by widespread price reductions and decelerating but still negative year-over-year changes. Job growth and net migration provide underlying support, yet higher mortgage rates and ample supply have outweighed demand, keeping values on a downward or flat trajectory. With only weeks until resolution and no major near-term catalysts anticipated, market-implied odds heavily favor the lowest bin as current levels and momentum align with that outcome.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Volume
$88,783End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated housing inventory and persistent price pressure from the post-2022 correction continue to anchor trader expectations for the Austin metro median home value near or below $446,000 by September 30.** Recent data show the Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier) near $424,000 as of mid-2026, with July median listing prices at approximately $462,000 and sales medians reported between $435,000 and $450,000 by Unlock MLS and other trackers. Months of supply remain elevated around 4.7–5.2, accompanied by widespread price reductions and decelerating but still negative year-over-year changes. Job growth and net migration provide underlying support, yet higher mortgage rates and ample supply have outweighed demand, keeping values on a downward or flat trajectory. With only weeks until resolution and no major near-term catalysts anticipated, market-implied odds heavily favor the lowest bin as current levels and momentum align with that outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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