Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5-7% and persistent oversupply from pandemic-era construction continue to anchor Austin metro median home values near recent levels of $435,000-$504,000 across Zillow, Redfin, and MLS data through July 2026, with year-over-year declines of 0.5-4.4% supporting the 87.5% implied probability for sub-$446K resolution on September 30. High homeowner insurance costs amid weather risks and reduced net migration have further tempered demand, extending days on market and limiting price recovery in a buyer-favorable environment. Limited seasonal momentum into late summer, absent major Fed rate cuts or inventory absorption, reinforces trader consensus around these near-term thresholds while underscoring uncertainty from any unexpected policy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$446K 88%
$446K - $454K 8.4%
$470K - $478K 2.8%
$454K - $462K 1.8%
$85,467 Vol.
$85,467 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
88%
$446K - $454K
8%
$454K - $462K
2%
$462K - $470K
1%
$470K - $478K
3%
$478K - $486K
1%
$486K+
1%
<$446K 88%
$446K - $454K 8.4%
$470K - $478K 2.8%
$454K - $462K 1.8%
$85,467 Vol.
$85,467 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
$28,846 Vol.
88%
$446K - $454K
$16,348 Vol.
8%
$454K - $462K
$6,973 Vol.
2%
$462K - $470K
$5,835 Vol.
1%
$470K - $478K
$12,701 Vol.
3%
$478K - $486K
$5,064 Vol.
1%
$486K+
$9,702 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5-7% and persistent oversupply from pandemic-era construction continue to anchor Austin metro median home values near recent levels of $435,000-$504,000 across Zillow, Redfin, and MLS data through July 2026, with year-over-year declines of 0.5-4.4% supporting the 87.5% implied probability for sub-$446K resolution on September 30. High homeowner insurance costs amid weather risks and reduced net migration have further tempered demand, extending days on market and limiting price recovery in a buyer-favorable environment. Limited seasonal momentum into late summer, absent major Fed rate cuts or inventory absorption, reinforces trader consensus around these near-term thresholds while underscoring uncertainty from any unexpected policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$85,467End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5-7% and persistent oversupply from pandemic-era construction continue to anchor Austin metro median home values near recent levels of $435,000-$504,000 across Zillow, Redfin, and MLS data through July 2026, with year-over-year declines of 0.5-4.4% supporting the 87.5% implied probability for sub-$446K resolution on September 30. High homeowner insurance costs amid weather risks and reduced net migration have further tempered demand, extending days on market and limiting price recovery in a buyer-favorable environment. Limited seasonal momentum into late summer, absent major Fed rate cuts or inventory absorption, reinforces trader consensus around these near-term thresholds while underscoring uncertainty from any unexpected policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Volume
$85,467End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5-7% and persistent oversupply from pandemic-era construction continue to anchor Austin metro median home values near recent levels of $435,000-$504,000 across Zillow, Redfin, and MLS data through July 2026, with year-over-year declines of 0.5-4.4% supporting the 87.5% implied probability for sub-$446K resolution on September 30. High homeowner insurance costs amid weather risks and reduced net migration have further tempered demand, extending days on market and limiting price recovery in a buyer-favorable environment. Limited seasonal momentum into late summer, absent major Fed rate cuts or inventory absorption, reinforces trader consensus around these near-term thresholds while underscoring uncertainty from any unexpected policy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions