US federal prosecutors indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in May 2026 over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown, creating a precedent for criminal cases against senior Cuban officials amid the Trump administration’s renewed sanctions regime and executive orders targeting the island’s oil supplies and regime stability. In June 2026, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on current President Miguel Díaz-Canel, his wife, and related entities, but has not filed federal criminal charges against him. Ongoing bilateral tensions, including energy shortages, diplomatic meetings, and US calls for regime change, shape trader views on whether an indictment will occur by the market’s resolution date, with sanctions serving as the primary recent tool of pressure rather than indictments.