The 97.4% trader consensus against a U.S. debt default by 2027 rests primarily on Congress’s unbroken record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, most recently via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that lifted the limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. That increase, enacted through reconciliation, is projected to delay the next binding constraint until late winter or mid-summer 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer. The dollar’s reserve-currency status and the severe costs any payment disruption would impose on financial markets further reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act again when needed. Remaining tail risks capable of shifting odds include extended partisan standoffs once the ceiling is reached or an unforeseen fiscal shock that exhausts cash and measures before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% chance
$16,641 Vol.
$16,641 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$16,641 Vol.
$16,641 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The 97.4% trader consensus against a U.S. debt default by 2027 rests primarily on Congress’s unbroken record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, most recently via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that lifted the limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. That increase, enacted through reconciliation, is projected to delay the next binding constraint until late winter or mid-summer 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer. The dollar’s reserve-currency status and the severe costs any payment disruption would impose on financial markets further reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act again when needed. Remaining tail risks capable of shifting odds include extended partisan standoffs once the ceiling is reached or an unforeseen fiscal shock that exhausts cash and measures before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$16,641End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The 97.4% trader consensus against a U.S. debt default by 2027 rests primarily on Congress’s unbroken record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, most recently via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that lifted the limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. That increase, enacted through reconciliation, is projected to delay the next binding constraint until late winter or mid-summer 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer. The dollar’s reserve-currency status and the severe costs any payment disruption would impose on financial markets further reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act again when needed. Remaining tail risks capable of shifting odds include extended partisan standoffs once the ceiling is reached or an unforeseen fiscal shock that exhausts cash and measures before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$16,641End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 97.4% trader consensus against a U.S. debt default by 2027 rests primarily on Congress’s unbroken record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, most recently via the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that lifted the limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion. That increase, enacted through reconciliation, is projected to delay the next binding constraint until late winter or mid-summer 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures would provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer. The dollar’s reserve-currency status and the severe costs any payment disruption would impose on financial markets further reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act again when needed. Remaining tail risks capable of shifting odds include extended partisan standoffs once the ceiling is reached or an unforeseen fiscal shock that exhausts cash and measures before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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