Turkey remains barred from the F-35 program under U.S. law due to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems acquired in 2019, which triggered removal from the multinational consortium and CAATSA sanctions. Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA requires certification that Turkey no longer holds the systems and provides assurances against future Russian acquisitions before any transfer or reinstatement can proceed. In July 2026, President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdoğan, prompting Ankara to explore S-400 transfers to Gulf partners such as the UAE. However, talks have stalled, and a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met statutory conditions. Six pre-paid F-35s stay in U.S. storage, while congressional opposition and concerns from Israel and Greece continue to shape the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$43,408 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
30%
$43,408 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,448 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey remains barred from the F-35 program under U.S. law due to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems acquired in 2019, which triggered removal from the multinational consortium and CAATSA sanctions. Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA requires certification that Turkey no longer holds the systems and provides assurances against future Russian acquisitions before any transfer or reinstatement can proceed. In July 2026, President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdoğan, prompting Ankara to explore S-400 transfers to Gulf partners such as the UAE. However, talks have stalled, and a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met statutory conditions. Six pre-paid F-35s stay in U.S. storage, while congressional opposition and concerns from Israel and Greece continue to shape the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey remains barred from the F-35 program under U.S. law due to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems acquired in 2019, which triggered removal from the multinational consortium and CAATSA sanctions. Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA requires certification that Turkey no longer holds the systems and provides assurances against future Russian acquisitions before any transfer or reinstatement can proceed. In July 2026, President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdoğan, prompting Ankara to explore S-400 transfers to Gulf partners such as the UAE. However, talks have stalled, and a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met statutory conditions. Six pre-paid F-35s stay in U.S. storage, while congressional opposition and concerns from Israel and Greece continue to shape the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey remains barred from the F-35 program under U.S. law due to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems acquired in 2019, which triggered removal from the multinational consortium and CAATSA sanctions. Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA requires certification that Turkey no longer holds the systems and provides assurances against future Russian acquisitions before any transfer or reinstatement can proceed. In July 2026, President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdoğan, prompting Ankara to explore S-400 transfers to Gulf partners such as the UAE. However, talks have stalled, and a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met statutory conditions. Six pre-paid F-35s stay in U.S. storage, while congressional opposition and concerns from Israel and Greece continue to shape the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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