Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election has seen the Sweden Democrats maintain a modest but steady edge over the Moderates in voter intention surveys, with recent Indikator Opinion, Novus, and Ipsos polls placing SD at 19.3–19.7 percent and M at 17.6–18.9 percent. This pattern has held through the final weeks of the campaign despite the broader Tidö bloc narrowing its deficit to the centre-left opposition. Traders have priced SD as the clear favorite to finish ahead of M because no major polling movement or late-breaking event has reversed the two parties’ relative positions, and SD’s established base on immigration and security issues has kept its support stable even as bloc-level dynamics shift. The Liberals remain well below the four-percent threshold, further concentrating right-wing votes between the two leading parties.