**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has amassed roughly $855 million domestically after its record $360 million opening weekend, placing it on a trajectory that makes sub-$900 million totals by August 31 the clear market favorite. Strong early legs and positive word-of-mouth have kept it ahead of comparable MCU titles, yet typical fourth-weekend drops to $39 million and the short runway before Labor Day limit upside potential. Traders view the 84.5% implied probability on the lowest bracket as reflecting realistic week-five and holiday-adjusted estimates that fall well short of 900 million, while higher bands remain thin due to historical patterns for even the biggest blockbusters. Upcoming chart updates and any final theatrical push represent the last swing factors before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 86%
900 - 920m 15%
920 - 940m <1%
1080m+ <1%
$452,920 Vol.
$452,920 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
86%
900 - 920m
15%
920 - 940m
1%
940 - 960m
<1%
960 - 980m
<1%
980 - 1000m
<1%
1000 - 1020m
<1%
1020 - 1040m
<1%
1040 - 1060m
<1%
1060 - 1080m
<1%
1080m+
<1%
<900m 86%
900 - 920m 15%
920 - 940m <1%
1080m+ <1%
$452,920 Vol.
$452,920 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$107,017 Vol.
86%
900 - 920m
$95,843 Vol.
15%
920 - 940m
$40,122 Vol.
1%
940 - 960m
$29,519 Vol.
<1%
960 - 980m
$19,204 Vol.
<1%
980 - 1000m
$8,300 Vol.
<1%
1000 - 1020m
$2,789 Vol.
<1%
1020 - 1040m
$764 Vol.
<1%
1040 - 1060m
$837 Vol.
<1%
1060 - 1080m
$873 Vol.
<1%
1080m+
$147,651 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has amassed roughly $855 million domestically after its record $360 million opening weekend, placing it on a trajectory that makes sub-$900 million totals by August 31 the clear market favorite. Strong early legs and positive word-of-mouth have kept it ahead of comparable MCU titles, yet typical fourth-weekend drops to $39 million and the short runway before Labor Day limit upside potential. Traders view the 84.5% implied probability on the lowest bracket as reflecting realistic week-five and holiday-adjusted estimates that fall well short of 900 million, while higher bands remain thin due to historical patterns for even the biggest blockbusters. Upcoming chart updates and any final theatrical push represent the last swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$452,920End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has amassed roughly $855 million domestically after its record $360 million opening weekend, placing it on a trajectory that makes sub-$900 million totals by August 31 the clear market favorite. Strong early legs and positive word-of-mouth have kept it ahead of comparable MCU titles, yet typical fourth-weekend drops to $39 million and the short runway before Labor Day limit upside potential. Traders view the 84.5% implied probability on the lowest bracket as reflecting realistic week-five and holiday-adjusted estimates that fall well short of 900 million, while higher bands remain thin due to historical patterns for even the biggest blockbusters. Upcoming chart updates and any final theatrical push represent the last swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$452,920End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has amassed roughly $855 million domestically after its record $360 million opening weekend, placing it on a trajectory that makes sub-$900 million totals by August 31 the clear market favorite. Strong early legs and positive word-of-mouth have kept it ahead of comparable MCU titles, yet typical fourth-weekend drops to $39 million and the short runway before Labor Day limit upside potential. Traders view the 84.5% implied probability on the lowest bracket as reflecting realistic week-five and holiday-adjusted estimates that fall well short of 900 million, while higher bands remain thin due to historical patterns for even the biggest blockbusters. Upcoming chart updates and any final theatrical push represent the last swing factors before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions