This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine remain locked in stalled negotiations, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating on August 28 that talks are in a “deep pause” while Russian forces advance in Donetsk and target Ukrainian infrastructure. Moscow continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire, a demand Kyiv has consistently rejected in favor of a freeze along current lines plus security guarantees involving NATO and EU partners. Ukrainian presidential adviser Kyrylo Budanov indicated on August 27 that technical talks could resume as early as September with possible U.S. involvement, though he anticipated no quick agreement. The last trilateral contacts occurred in February before U.S. attention shifted elsewhere. Ongoing Russian battlefield pressure and Ukrainian long-range strikes on energy targets have reinforced each side’s maximalist positions, limiting near-term prospects for a formal ceasefire accord.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia and Ukraine remain locked in stalled negotiations, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating on August 28 that talks are in a “deep pause” while Russian forces advance in Donetsk and target Ukrainian infrastructure. Moscow continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire, a demand Kyiv has consistently rejected in favor of a freeze along current lines plus security guarantees involving NATO and EU partners. Ukrainian presidential adviser Kyrylo Budanov indicated on August 27 that technical talks could resume as early as September with possible U.S. involvement, though he anticipated no quick agreement. The last trilateral contacts occurred in February before U.S. attention shifted elsewhere. Ongoing Russian battlefield pressure and Ukrainian long-range strikes on energy targets have reinforced each side’s maximalist positions, limiting near-term prospects for a formal ceasefire accord.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Aug 28 2026
Russia states peace talks with Ukraine remain on hold with no new ideas
December 31 drops to 19%8%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, signaling stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by late 2026.
Aug 22 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
October 31 dips to 11%3%
On August 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Russia's unwillingness to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 14 2026
Russian officials reiterate refusal to accept ceasefire without favorable terms
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia is unwilling to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and emphasized Russia’s commitment to continue the war until a settlement on its own terms is secured. This stance reinforced market skepticism about a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia through a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, reflecting ongoing stalemate and limited progress toward a broader ceasefire.
Aug 11 2026
Ukraine hands US new proposals aimed at ending war with Russia
June 30, 2027 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv has submitted new proposals to the US to end the war with Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential groundwork for future ceasefire talks. This raised some market optimism for longer-term ceasefire possibilities.
Jul 26 2026
Kremlin says too early to comment on reported US-Ukraine air ceasefire talks
Reports emerged that the US and Ukraine were discussing a possible halt to aerial attacks as part of peace efforts, but the Kremlin considered it premature to comment. This indicated some diplomatic activity but no concrete ceasefire agreement, causing limited market impact.
Jul 26 2026
Ukraine and U.S. discuss air ceasefire proposal to present to Russia
December 31 dips to 20%2%
Ukrainian and U.S. officials discussed a proposal for an air ceasefire to present to Russia as a first step toward reviving peace talks, though the Kremlin considered it premature to comment, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid stalled negotiations.
Jun 18 2026
Zelensky says US pushing for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by June 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that US envoys are pressing for a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia by June 2026, reflecting ongoing trilateral peace talks. This statement influenced market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by mid-2026, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
US, Ukraine push to resume peace talks with Russia aiming for partial ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 35%9%
Reports indicated renewed diplomatic efforts by the US and Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia, aiming for a partial ceasefire by the end of 2026. This development increased market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin and full ceasefire during negotiations
December 31 drops to 36%8%
In June 2026, Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral country and called for a full ceasefire for the duration of negotiations. Putin rejected the proposal, stating no point in a meeting and indicating Russia would continue fighting, which dampened ceasefire prospects.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky proposes full ceasefire for duration of negotiations
December 31 drops to 22%5%
In early June 2026, President Zelensky proposed a full ceasefire for the duration of peace negotiations and a face-to-face meeting with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to freeze the frontline, though Russia rejected the offer, maintaining maximalist demands.
May 20 2026
Russia declares unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day but warns of retaliation
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8-9 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations but simultaneously warned of a major strike on Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted the parade. This contradictory stance underscored the fragility of ceasefire efforts and limited market confidence in a lasting agreement.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner exchange following ceasefire
Following the May 9-11 ceasefire, Russia and Ukraine swapped 205 prisoners each, demonstrating partial implementation of the agreement and sustaining cautious market optimism about diplomatic progress.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap under ceasefire agreement
December 31 dips to 19%4%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking a significant humanitarian step. Despite this, sporadic violations and ongoing hostilities limited broader market confidence, reflected in declining prices for earlier ceasefire dates.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner swap following May ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 59%3%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, signaling partial implementation of the ceasefire terms and maintaining cautious market optimism about diplomatic progress.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine exchange 205 prisoners each amid fragile ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 57%1%
As part of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners of war each on May 15, marking the first phase of a larger planned exchange. Despite the prisoner swap, fighting resumed shortly after the ceasefire ended, underscoring the temporary nature of the truce.
May 13 2026
Ukraine and Russia complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S., reinforcing the temporary truce and sustaining market optimism about potential broader ceasefire agreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine remain locked in stalled negotiations, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating on August 28 that talks are in a “deep pause” while Russian forces advance in Donetsk and target Ukrainian infrastructure. Moscow continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire, a demand Kyiv has consistently rejected in favor of a freeze along current lines plus security guarantees involving NATO and EU partners. Ukrainian presidential adviser Kyrylo Budanov indicated on August 27 that technical talks could resume as early as September with possible U.S. involvement, though he anticipated no quick agreement. The last trilateral contacts occurred in February before U.S. attention shifted elsewhere. Ongoing Russian battlefield pressure and Ukrainian long-range strikes on energy targets have reinforced each side’s maximalist positions, limiting near-term prospects for a formal ceasefire accord.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia and Ukraine remain locked in stalled negotiations, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating on August 28 that talks are in a “deep pause” while Russian forces advance in Donetsk and target Ukrainian infrastructure. Moscow continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a precondition for any ceasefire, a demand Kyiv has consistently rejected in favor of a freeze along current lines plus security guarantees involving NATO and EU partners. Ukrainian presidential adviser Kyrylo Budanov indicated on August 27 that technical talks could resume as early as September with possible U.S. involvement, though he anticipated no quick agreement. The last trilateral contacts occurred in February before U.S. attention shifted elsewhere. Ongoing Russian battlefield pressure and Ukrainian long-range strikes on energy targets have reinforced each side’s maximalist positions, limiting near-term prospects for a formal ceasefire accord.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Aug 28 2026
Russia states peace talks with Ukraine remain on hold with no new ideas
December 31 drops to 19%8%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, signaling stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by late 2026.
Aug 22 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
October 31 dips to 11%3%
On August 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Russia's unwillingness to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 14 2026
Russian officials reiterate refusal to accept ceasefire without favorable terms
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia is unwilling to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and emphasized Russia’s commitment to continue the war until a settlement on its own terms is secured. This stance reinforced market skepticism about a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia through a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, reflecting ongoing stalemate and limited progress toward a broader ceasefire.
Aug 11 2026
Ukraine hands US new proposals aimed at ending war with Russia
June 30, 2027 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv has submitted new proposals to the US to end the war with Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential groundwork for future ceasefire talks. This raised some market optimism for longer-term ceasefire possibilities.
Jul 26 2026
Kremlin says too early to comment on reported US-Ukraine air ceasefire talks
Reports emerged that the US and Ukraine were discussing a possible halt to aerial attacks as part of peace efforts, but the Kremlin considered it premature to comment. This indicated some diplomatic activity but no concrete ceasefire agreement, causing limited market impact.
Jul 26 2026
Ukraine and U.S. discuss air ceasefire proposal to present to Russia
December 31 dips to 20%2%
Ukrainian and U.S. officials discussed a proposal for an air ceasefire to present to Russia as a first step toward reviving peace talks, though the Kremlin considered it premature to comment, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid stalled negotiations.
Jun 18 2026
Zelensky says US pushing for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by June 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that US envoys are pressing for a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia by June 2026, reflecting ongoing trilateral peace talks. This statement influenced market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by mid-2026, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
US, Ukraine push to resume peace talks with Russia aiming for partial ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 35%9%
Reports indicated renewed diplomatic efforts by the US and Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia, aiming for a partial ceasefire by the end of 2026. This development increased market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin and full ceasefire during negotiations
December 31 drops to 36%8%
In June 2026, Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral country and called for a full ceasefire for the duration of negotiations. Putin rejected the proposal, stating no point in a meeting and indicating Russia would continue fighting, which dampened ceasefire prospects.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky proposes full ceasefire for duration of negotiations
December 31 drops to 22%5%
In early June 2026, President Zelensky proposed a full ceasefire for the duration of peace negotiations and a face-to-face meeting with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to freeze the frontline, though Russia rejected the offer, maintaining maximalist demands.
May 20 2026
Russia declares unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day but warns of retaliation
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8-9 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations but simultaneously warned of a major strike on Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted the parade. This contradictory stance underscored the fragility of ceasefire efforts and limited market confidence in a lasting agreement.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner exchange following ceasefire
Following the May 9-11 ceasefire, Russia and Ukraine swapped 205 prisoners each, demonstrating partial implementation of the agreement and sustaining cautious market optimism about diplomatic progress.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap under ceasefire agreement
December 31 dips to 19%4%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking a significant humanitarian step. Despite this, sporadic violations and ongoing hostilities limited broader market confidence, reflected in declining prices for earlier ceasefire dates.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner swap following May ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 59%3%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, signaling partial implementation of the ceasefire terms and maintaining cautious market optimism about diplomatic progress.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine exchange 205 prisoners each amid fragile ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 57%1%
As part of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners of war each on May 15, marking the first phase of a larger planned exchange. Despite the prisoner swap, fighting resumed shortly after the ceasefire ended, underscoring the temporary nature of the truce.
May 13 2026
Ukraine and Russia complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S., reinforcing the temporary truce and sustaining market optimism about potential broader ceasefire agreements.
"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2027" at 51%, followed by "March 31, 2027" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" has generated $6.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" is "June 30, 2027" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31, 2027" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $6.2 million traded on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 51¢ for "June 30, 2027" in the "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 51% chance that "June 30, 2027" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 51¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 49¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" market has an active community of 131 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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