Zelenskyy has identified late 2026 through summer 2027 as the most realistic window for any diplomatic settlement, citing persistent gaps over Donbas control, buffer zones, and security guarantees. Russian officials have signaled no willingness to conclude talks or accept a ceasefire before early 2027, while Ukrainian polling indicates strong domestic resistance to territorial concessions that any viable deal would likely require. Trilateral negotiations remain suspended following earlier postponements, with only limited tactical pauses achieved and no framework submitted for parliamentary or public approval. These barriers, combined with battlefield stalemate and red lines from both sides, underpin trader expectations that a Ukrainian peace referendum will not pass before the end of 2026.