New Jersey’s 10th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+27, rooted in its urban core around Newark and consistent voter registration advantages. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with more than 84 percent in the June 2026 primary, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, aligning with historical margins and structural factors that underpin trader consensus near 95 percent for Democrats. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually sharp national turnout swings, though these remain low-probability given the district’s baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-10 House Election Winner
NJ-10 House Election Winner
$46,708 Vol.
$46,708 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$46,708 Vol.
$46,708 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,890 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$32,818 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 10th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+27, rooted in its urban core around Newark and consistent voter registration advantages. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with more than 84 percent in the June 2026 primary, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, aligning with historical margins and structural factors that underpin trader consensus near 95 percent for Democrats. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually sharp national turnout swings, though these remain low-probability given the district’s baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$46,708End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 10th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+27, rooted in its urban core around Newark and consistent voter registration advantages. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with more than 84 percent in the June 2026 primary, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, aligning with historical margins and structural factors that underpin trader consensus near 95 percent for Democrats. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually sharp national turnout swings, though these remain low-probability given the district’s baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,708End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey’s 10th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+27, rooted in its urban core around Newark and consistent voter registration advantages. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with more than 84 percent in the June 2026 primary, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, aligning with historical margins and structural factors that underpin trader consensus near 95 percent for Democrats. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually sharp national turnout swings, though these remain low-probability given the district’s baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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