Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and local observations indicate overnight lows in Warsaw reaching approximately 9°C early on August 25, with model consensus pointing to a daily minimum near 8°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions and light easterly winds. This aligns with typical late-August climatology for the region, where average nighttime temperatures decline toward 12°C but can dip lower amid stable high-pressure patterns. The market's overwhelming 99% implied probability on 8°C reflects trader confidence in these verified model outputs and initial station readings, though slight revisions in final official data or localized microclimate effects could still shift resolution if temperatures stabilize above or drop below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
8°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
9°C <1%
$5,370 Vol.
$5,370 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
Yes
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
8°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
9°C <1%
$5,370 Vol.
$5,370 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
6°C or below
$210 Vol.
No
7°C
$324 Vol.
No
8°C
$181 Vol.
Yes
9°C
$478 Vol.
No
10°C
$330 Vol.
No
11°C
$326 Vol.
No
12°C
$320 Vol.
No
13°C
$205 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,427 Vol.
No
15°C
$245 Vol.
No
16°C or higher
$325 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and local observations indicate overnight lows in Warsaw reaching approximately 9°C early on August 25, with model consensus pointing to a daily minimum near 8°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions and light easterly winds. This aligns with typical late-August climatology for the region, where average nighttime temperatures decline toward 12°C but can dip lower amid stable high-pressure patterns. The market's overwhelming 99% implied probability on 8°C reflects trader confidence in these verified model outputs and initial station readings, though slight revisions in final official data or localized microclimate effects could still shift resolution if temperatures stabilize above or drop below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,370End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and local observations indicate overnight lows in Warsaw reaching approximately 9°C early on August 25, with model consensus pointing to a daily minimum near 8°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions and light easterly winds. This aligns with typical late-August climatology for the region, where average nighttime temperatures decline toward 12°C but can dip lower amid stable high-pressure patterns. The market's overwhelming 99% implied probability on 8°C reflects trader confidence in these verified model outputs and initial station readings, though slight revisions in final official data or localized microclimate effects could still shift resolution if temperatures stabilize above or drop below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,370End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and local observations indicate overnight lows in Warsaw reaching approximately 9°C early on August 25, with model consensus pointing to a daily minimum near 8°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions and light easterly winds. This aligns with typical late-August climatology for the region, where average nighttime temperatures decline toward 12°C but can dip lower amid stable high-pressure patterns. The market's overwhelming 99% implied probability on 8°C reflects trader confidence in these verified model outputs and initial station readings, though slight revisions in final official data or localized microclimate effects could still shift resolution if temperatures stabilize above or drop below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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