Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
15°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$4,340 Vol.
$4,340 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$4,340 Vol.
$4,340 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$138 Vol.
No
15°C
$276 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$505 Vol.
No
17°C
$270 Vol.
No
18°C
$279 Vol.
No
19°C
$365 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,475 Vol.
No
21°C
$500 Vol.
No
22°C
$70 Vol.
No
23°C
$70 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$390 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,340End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,340End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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