Recent Tokyo and national core CPI readings hovering at 1.8% year-over-year reflect moderating headline pressures from government energy subsidies, yet underlying measures excluding fresh food, energy, and special factors have held at 2.0-2.3%, supported by cost pass-through from a weaker yen, Middle East-driven crude oil gains, and broadening services inflation amid tight labor markets and wage growth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 2.4% for 2026 as subsidies and base effects temper the trajectory, though accelerating input costs and AI-related demand could lift readings toward the Bank of Japan's 2% target later in the year. Key catalysts include upcoming national CPI releases and BOJ policy communications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤1.9% 54.2%
2.0-2.4% 44%
3.0-3.4% 3.4%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$39,425 Vol.
$39,425 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
54%
2.0-2.4%
44%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
3%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 54.2%
2.0-2.4% 44%
3.0-3.4% 3.4%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$39,425 Vol.
$39,425 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$18,726 Vol.
54%
2.0-2.4%
$11,063 Vol.
44%
2.5-2.9%
$5,421 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,536 Vol.
3%
3.5-3.9%
$1,253 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent Tokyo and national core CPI readings hovering at 1.8% year-over-year reflect moderating headline pressures from government energy subsidies, yet underlying measures excluding fresh food, energy, and special factors have held at 2.0-2.3%, supported by cost pass-through from a weaker yen, Middle East-driven crude oil gains, and broadening services inflation amid tight labor markets and wage growth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 2.4% for 2026 as subsidies and base effects temper the trajectory, though accelerating input costs and AI-related demand could lift readings toward the Bank of Japan's 2% target later in the year. Key catalysts include upcoming national CPI releases and BOJ policy communications.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$39,425End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent Tokyo and national core CPI readings hovering at 1.8% year-over-year reflect moderating headline pressures from government energy subsidies, yet underlying measures excluding fresh food, energy, and special factors have held at 2.0-2.3%, supported by cost pass-through from a weaker yen, Middle East-driven crude oil gains, and broadening services inflation amid tight labor markets and wage growth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 2.4% for 2026 as subsidies and base effects temper the trajectory, though accelerating input costs and AI-related demand could lift readings toward the Bank of Japan's 2% target later in the year. Key catalysts include upcoming national CPI releases and BOJ policy communications.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$39,425End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Tokyo and national core CPI readings hovering at 1.8% year-over-year reflect moderating headline pressures from government energy subsidies, yet underlying measures excluding fresh food, energy, and special factors have held at 2.0-2.3%, supported by cost pass-through from a weaker yen, Middle East-driven crude oil gains, and broadening services inflation amid tight labor markets and wage growth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 2.4% for 2026 as subsidies and base effects temper the trajectory, though accelerating input costs and AI-related demand could lift readings toward the Bank of Japan's 2% target later in the year. Key catalysts include upcoming national CPI releases and BOJ policy communications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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