Recent Israeli polls project Likud at roughly 22–31 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with averages clustering near the 25–29 range amid high volatility. A surge by Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party has narrowed Likud’s traditional lead, while lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, Haredi draft disputes, and internal coalition strains continue to weigh on support. Likud’s August primaries, marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s moves to shape the candidate list, produced modest polling gains in some surveys but highlighted party divisions. These factors sustain tight market pricing between the 20–24 and 25–29 bands, reflecting competing bloc strengths and unresolved questions over turnout, opposition consolidation, and any late security or legal developments that could shift voter blocs before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25-29 34%
20-24 31%
<20 17.8%
30-34 18%
$106,162 Vol.
$106,162 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
18%
20-24
31%
25-29
34%
30-34
18%
35+
3%
25-29 34%
20-24 31%
<20 17.8%
30-34 18%
$106,162 Vol.
$106,162 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
$34,703 Vol.
18%
20-24
$16,191 Vol.
31%
25-29
$25,496 Vol.
34%
30-34
$20,265 Vol.
18%
35+
$9,507 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polls project Likud at roughly 22–31 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with averages clustering near the 25–29 range amid high volatility. A surge by Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party has narrowed Likud’s traditional lead, while lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, Haredi draft disputes, and internal coalition strains continue to weigh on support. Likud’s August primaries, marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s moves to shape the candidate list, produced modest polling gains in some surveys but highlighted party divisions. These factors sustain tight market pricing between the 20–24 and 25–29 bands, reflecting competing bloc strengths and unresolved questions over turnout, opposition consolidation, and any late security or legal developments that could shift voter blocs before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$106,162End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polls project Likud at roughly 22–31 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with averages clustering near the 25–29 range amid high volatility. A surge by Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party has narrowed Likud’s traditional lead, while lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, Haredi draft disputes, and internal coalition strains continue to weigh on support. Likud’s August primaries, marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s moves to shape the candidate list, produced modest polling gains in some surveys but highlighted party divisions. These factors sustain tight market pricing between the 20–24 and 25–29 bands, reflecting competing bloc strengths and unresolved questions over turnout, opposition consolidation, and any late security or legal developments that could shift voter blocs before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$106,162End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Israeli polls project Likud at roughly 22–31 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with averages clustering near the 25–29 range amid high volatility. A surge by Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party has narrowed Likud’s traditional lead, while lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, Haredi draft disputes, and internal coalition strains continue to weigh on support. Likud’s August primaries, marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s moves to shape the candidate list, produced modest polling gains in some surveys but highlighted party divisions. These factors sustain tight market pricing between the 20–24 and 25–29 bands, reflecting competing bloc strengths and unresolved questions over turnout, opposition consolidation, and any late security or legal developments that could shift voter blocs before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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