Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20-27 seats, well below its current 32 (rising to 36 after a planned merger with New Hope). This underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that the party will lose seats. Sustained erosion traces to lingering effects from the October 2023 Hamas attack, prolonged security challenges, and coalition strains that triggered the early vote. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has surged ahead in multiple August surveys, often reaching 24-26 seats and drawing centrist and security-focused voters. Likud's mid-August primaries reinforced a rightward tilt on the candidate list without reversing the polling trend, while broader opposition blocs maintain competitive positioning ahead of coalition formation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated94% chance
$13,711 Vol.
$13,711 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
94% chance
$13,711 Vol.
$13,711 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20-27 seats, well below its current 32 (rising to 36 after a planned merger with New Hope). This underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that the party will lose seats. Sustained erosion traces to lingering effects from the October 2023 Hamas attack, prolonged security challenges, and coalition strains that triggered the early vote. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has surged ahead in multiple August surveys, often reaching 24-26 seats and drawing centrist and security-focused voters. Likud's mid-August primaries reinforced a rightward tilt on the candidate list without reversing the polling trend, while broader opposition blocs maintain competitive positioning ahead of coalition formation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$13,711End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20-27 seats, well below its current 32 (rising to 36 after a planned merger with New Hope). This underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that the party will lose seats. Sustained erosion traces to lingering effects from the October 2023 Hamas attack, prolonged security challenges, and coalition strains that triggered the early vote. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has surged ahead in multiple August surveys, often reaching 24-26 seats and drawing centrist and security-focused voters. Likud's mid-August primaries reinforced a rightward tilt on the candidate list without reversing the polling trend, while broader opposition blocs maintain competitive positioning ahead of coalition formation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$13,711End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 20-27 seats, well below its current 32 (rising to 36 after a planned merger with New Hope). This underpins the 93.5% trader consensus that the party will lose seats. Sustained erosion traces to lingering effects from the October 2023 Hamas attack, prolonged security challenges, and coalition strains that triggered the early vote. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has surged ahead in multiple August surveys, often reaching 24-26 seats and drawing centrist and security-focused voters. Likud's mid-August primaries reinforced a rightward tilt on the candidate list without reversing the polling trend, while broader opposition blocs maintain competitive positioning ahead of coalition formation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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