**Howard Lutnick remains actively engaged as Secretary of Commerce in the second Trump administration, with no verified signals of an impending departure by year-end.** Confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, he continues to lead tariff enforcement, trade negotiations, and manufacturing initiatives, including recent bilateral meetings with Korean officials on investment and Section 301 matters as well as high-profile involvement in U.S.-Canada talks that collapsed in late August 2026. His aggressive approach on metals and tariffs has drawn both internal administration praise and external criticism, yet President Trump has shown no public indication of removing him. Earlier 2026 scrutiny over Epstein-related disclosures prompted congressional questions but produced no resignation or dismissal. With roughly four months left until December 31 and Lutnick central to ongoing trade policy execution, traders assign the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability, consistent with the absence of any structural or political catalyst for an exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated23% chance
$19,114 Vol.
$19,114 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
23% chance
$19,114 Vol.
$19,114 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Howard Lutnick remains actively engaged as Secretary of Commerce in the second Trump administration, with no verified signals of an impending departure by year-end.** Confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, he continues to lead tariff enforcement, trade negotiations, and manufacturing initiatives, including recent bilateral meetings with Korean officials on investment and Section 301 matters as well as high-profile involvement in U.S.-Canada talks that collapsed in late August 2026.
His aggressive approach on metals and tariffs has drawn both internal administration praise and external criticism, yet President Trump has shown no public indication of removing him. Earlier 2026 scrutiny over Epstein-related disclosures prompted congressional questions but produced no resignation or dismissal.
With roughly four months left until December 31 and Lutnick central to ongoing trade policy execution, traders assign the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability, consistent with the absence of any structural or political catalyst for an exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volume
$19,114End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Howard Lutnick remains actively engaged as Secretary of Commerce in the second Trump administration, with no verified signals of an impending departure by year-end.** Confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, he continues to lead tariff enforcement, trade negotiations, and manufacturing initiatives, including recent bilateral meetings with Korean officials on investment and Section 301 matters as well as high-profile involvement in U.S.-Canada talks that collapsed in late August 2026.
His aggressive approach on metals and tariffs has drawn both internal administration praise and external criticism, yet President Trump has shown no public indication of removing him. Earlier 2026 scrutiny over Epstein-related disclosures prompted congressional questions but produced no resignation or dismissal.
With roughly four months left until December 31 and Lutnick central to ongoing trade policy execution, traders assign the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability, consistent with the absence of any structural or political catalyst for an exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,114End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Howard Lutnick remains actively engaged as Secretary of Commerce in the second Trump administration, with no verified signals of an impending departure by year-end.** Confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, he continues to lead tariff enforcement, trade negotiations, and manufacturing initiatives, including recent bilateral meetings with Korean officials on investment and Section 301 matters as well as high-profile involvement in U.S.-Canada talks that collapsed in late August 2026. His aggressive approach on metals and tariffs has drawn both internal administration praise and external criticism, yet President Trump has shown no public indication of removing him. Earlier 2026 scrutiny over Epstein-related disclosures prompted congressional questions but produced no resignation or dismissal. With roughly four months left until December 31 and Lutnick central to ongoing trade policy execution, traders assign the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability, consistent with the absence of any structural or political catalyst for an exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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