**Trader consensus centers on Democrats winning 5–6 Ohio House seats in the 2026 midterms, with 6 seats priced highest at 49%.** Ohio’s 15 districts feature a new congressional map enacted in October 2025 via bipartisan redistricting commission compromise; the lines are modestly more Republican-leaning than the prior map but leave three Democratic-held seats (OH-1, OH-9, OH-13) as the primary battlegrounds alongside OH-7. Current ratings from forecasters place OH-1 (incumbent Greg Landsman) as a toss-up or lean Democratic, OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur) as a toss-up or tilt Republican, OH-7 (Max Miller) as a toss-up, and OH-13 (Emilia Sykes) as likely Democratic. The other Democratic seats (OH-3 and OH-11) are safe. Statewide polling in the concurrent Senate and gubernatorial races shows narrow Democratic edges or toss-ups, creating potential coattails that could help Democrats defend or expand their delegation in a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground. This competitive map and localized polling explain why markets assign the highest probability to a 5- or 6-seat outcome while giving lower odds to larger swings (7+) or bigger losses (4 or fewer). Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election based on certified results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6 49%
5 22%
7+ 18%
4 10%
$16,636 Vol.
$16,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<2
<1%
2
<1%
3
3%
4
10%
5
22%
6
49%
7+
18%
6 49%
5 22%
7+ 18%
4 10%
$16,636 Vol.
$16,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<2
$650 Vol.
<1%
2
$1,216 Vol.
<1%
3
$1,681 Vol.
3%
4
$3,994 Vol.
10%
5
$2,873 Vol.
22%
6
$3,591 Vol.
49%
7+
$2,631 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus centers on Democrats winning 5–6 Ohio House seats in the 2026 midterms, with 6 seats priced highest at 49%.** Ohio’s 15 districts feature a new congressional map enacted in October 2025 via bipartisan redistricting commission compromise; the lines are modestly more Republican-leaning than the prior map but leave three Democratic-held seats (OH-1, OH-9, OH-13) as the primary battlegrounds alongside OH-7.
Current ratings from forecasters place OH-1 (incumbent Greg Landsman) as a toss-up or lean Democratic, OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur) as a toss-up or tilt Republican, OH-7 (Max Miller) as a toss-up, and OH-13 (Emilia Sykes) as likely Democratic. The other Democratic seats (OH-3 and OH-11) are safe. Statewide polling in the concurrent Senate and gubernatorial races shows narrow Democratic edges or toss-ups, creating potential coattails that could help Democrats defend or expand their delegation in a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground.
This competitive map and localized polling explain why markets assign the highest probability to a 5- or 6-seat outcome while giving lower odds to larger swings (7+) or bigger losses (4 or fewer). Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election based on certified results.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$16,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus centers on Democrats winning 5–6 Ohio House seats in the 2026 midterms, with 6 seats priced highest at 49%.** Ohio’s 15 districts feature a new congressional map enacted in October 2025 via bipartisan redistricting commission compromise; the lines are modestly more Republican-leaning than the prior map but leave three Democratic-held seats (OH-1, OH-9, OH-13) as the primary battlegrounds alongside OH-7.
Current ratings from forecasters place OH-1 (incumbent Greg Landsman) as a toss-up or lean Democratic, OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur) as a toss-up or tilt Republican, OH-7 (Max Miller) as a toss-up, and OH-13 (Emilia Sykes) as likely Democratic. The other Democratic seats (OH-3 and OH-11) are safe. Statewide polling in the concurrent Senate and gubernatorial races shows narrow Democratic edges or toss-ups, creating potential coattails that could help Democrats defend or expand their delegation in a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground.
This competitive map and localized polling explain why markets assign the highest probability to a 5- or 6-seat outcome while giving lower odds to larger swings (7+) or bigger losses (4 or fewer). Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election based on certified results.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on Democrats winning 5–6 Ohio House seats in the 2026 midterms, with 6 seats priced highest at 49%.** Ohio’s 15 districts feature a new congressional map enacted in October 2025 via bipartisan redistricting commission compromise; the lines are modestly more Republican-leaning than the prior map but leave three Democratic-held seats (OH-1, OH-9, OH-13) as the primary battlegrounds alongside OH-7. Current ratings from forecasters place OH-1 (incumbent Greg Landsman) as a toss-up or lean Democratic, OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur) as a toss-up or tilt Republican, OH-7 (Max Miller) as a toss-up, and OH-13 (Emilia Sykes) as likely Democratic. The other Democratic seats (OH-3 and OH-11) are safe. Statewide polling in the concurrent Senate and gubernatorial races shows narrow Democratic edges or toss-ups, creating potential coattails that could help Democrats defend or expand their delegation in a national environment where the out-party typically gains ground. This competitive map and localized polling explain why markets assign the highest probability to a 5- or 6-seat outcome while giving lower odds to larger swings (7+) or bigger losses (4 or fewer). Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election based on certified results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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