Recent Republican-drawn congressional maps and the just-completed August primaries have dispersed trader probabilities across Democratic seat totals in Florida’s 28 districts. The maps, upheld by courts for 2026 use, aim to expand the current GOP edge beyond the prior 20–8 split by consolidating Democratic voters in fewer areas, particularly affecting south Florida districts. Safe or likely Democratic holds center on incumbents such as Maxwell Frost, Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Lois Frankel, plus the open FL-24 seat, establishing a floor near four to six seats. Higher outcomes hinge on performance in redrawn or open districts like FL-20 and FL-22, candidate quality after primaries, turnout among key voting blocs, and any national midterm swing against the president’s party. The wide distribution of probabilities reflects uncertainty over whether Democrats can exceed the map’s baseline or face further erosion in competitive terrain before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10 14%
12+ 14%
7 13%
4 11.9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<4
1%
4
12%
5
8%
6
11%
7
13%
8
9%
9
5%
10
14%
11
12%
12+
14%
10 14%
12+ 14%
7 13%
4 11.9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<4
$167 Vol.
1%
4
$1,211 Vol.
12%
5
$425 Vol.
8%
6
$204 Vol.
11%
7
$341 Vol.
13%
8
$202 Vol.
9%
9
$201 Vol.
5%
10
$470 Vol.
14%
11
$284 Vol.
12%
12+
$389 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Republican-drawn congressional maps and the just-completed August primaries have dispersed trader probabilities across Democratic seat totals in Florida’s 28 districts. The maps, upheld by courts for 2026 use, aim to expand the current GOP edge beyond the prior 20–8 split by consolidating Democratic voters in fewer areas, particularly affecting south Florida districts. Safe or likely Democratic holds center on incumbents such as Maxwell Frost, Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Lois Frankel, plus the open FL-24 seat, establishing a floor near four to six seats. Higher outcomes hinge on performance in redrawn or open districts like FL-20 and FL-22, candidate quality after primaries, turnout among key voting blocs, and any national midterm swing against the president’s party. The wide distribution of probabilities reflects uncertainty over whether Democrats can exceed the map’s baseline or face further erosion in competitive terrain before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$3,893End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Republican-drawn congressional maps and the just-completed August primaries have dispersed trader probabilities across Democratic seat totals in Florida’s 28 districts. The maps, upheld by courts for 2026 use, aim to expand the current GOP edge beyond the prior 20–8 split by consolidating Democratic voters in fewer areas, particularly affecting south Florida districts. Safe or likely Democratic holds center on incumbents such as Maxwell Frost, Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Lois Frankel, plus the open FL-24 seat, establishing a floor near four to six seats. Higher outcomes hinge on performance in redrawn or open districts like FL-20 and FL-22, candidate quality after primaries, turnout among key voting blocs, and any national midterm swing against the president’s party. The wide distribution of probabilities reflects uncertainty over whether Democrats can exceed the map’s baseline or face further erosion in competitive terrain before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,893End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Republican-drawn congressional maps and the just-completed August primaries have dispersed trader probabilities across Democratic seat totals in Florida’s 28 districts. The maps, upheld by courts for 2026 use, aim to expand the current GOP edge beyond the prior 20–8 split by consolidating Democratic voters in fewer areas, particularly affecting south Florida districts. Safe or likely Democratic holds center on incumbents such as Maxwell Frost, Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Lois Frankel, plus the open FL-24 seat, establishing a floor near four to six seats. Higher outcomes hinge on performance in redrawn or open districts like FL-20 and FL-22, candidate quality after primaries, turnout among key voting blocs, and any national midterm swing against the president’s party. The wide distribution of probabilities reflects uncertainty over whether Democrats can exceed the map’s baseline or face further erosion in competitive terrain before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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