Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus position a 22°C daily maximum as the most likely outcome for London on August 31, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable post-frontal air mass. Official forecasts explicitly list 22°C as the expected high, with hourly profiles from multiple sources peaking near that level by mid-afternoon before cooling overnight. Nearby probabilities for 21°C and 23°C reflect typical model spread and minor timing shifts in cloud or wind, while lower odds for 24°C or above align with the absence of strong southerly advection or clear-sky radiative warming. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 31?
Highest temperature in London on August 31?
22°C 41%
23°C 27%
21°C 20%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
8%
20°C
8%
21°C
20%
22°C
41%
23°C
27%
24°C
11%
25°C
6%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 41%
23°C 27%
21°C 20%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$260 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$160 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$64 Vol.
8%
21°C
$173 Vol.
20%
22°C
$205 Vol.
41%
23°C
$429 Vol.
27%
24°C
$72 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
6%
26°C or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus position a 22°C daily maximum as the most likely outcome for London on August 31, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable post-frontal air mass. Official forecasts explicitly list 22°C as the expected high, with hourly profiles from multiple sources peaking near that level by mid-afternoon before cooling overnight. Nearby probabilities for 21°C and 23°C reflect typical model spread and minor timing shifts in cloud or wind, while lower odds for 24°C or above align with the absence of strong southerly advection or clear-sky radiative warming. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$1,419End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus position a 22°C daily maximum as the most likely outcome for London on August 31, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable post-frontal air mass. Official forecasts explicitly list 22°C as the expected high, with hourly profiles from multiple sources peaking near that level by mid-afternoon before cooling overnight. Nearby probabilities for 21°C and 23°C reflect typical model spread and minor timing shifts in cloud or wind, while lower odds for 24°C or above align with the absence of strong southerly advection or clear-sky radiative warming. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,419End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus position a 22°C daily maximum as the most likely outcome for London on August 31, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable post-frontal air mass. Official forecasts explicitly list 22°C as the expected high, with hourly profiles from multiple sources peaking near that level by mid-afternoon before cooling overnight. Nearby probabilities for 21°C and 23°C reflect typical model spread and minor timing shifts in cloud or wind, while lower odds for 24°C or above align with the absence of strong southerly advection or clear-sky radiative warming. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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