US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including coastal defenses and cruise missile sites, as part of efforts to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes amid broader US-Iran escalation. These operations degraded specific capabilities but left Iranian administrative and IRGC control intact, consistent with Iran's de facto administration since 1971. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, backed by GCC statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Tehran rejects such positions and continues fortification and missile deployments. Diplomatic pressure and regional military posturing have not produced any shift in on-ground authority, with trader consensus reflecting the barriers to rapid territorial change before late August 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$52,978 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
$52,978 Vol.
August 31
$30,469 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including coastal defenses and cruise missile sites, as part of efforts to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes amid broader US-Iran escalation. These operations degraded specific capabilities but left Iranian administrative and IRGC control intact, consistent with Iran's de facto administration since 1971. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, backed by GCC statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Tehran rejects such positions and continues fortification and missile deployments. Diplomatic pressure and regional military posturing have not produced any shift in on-ground authority, with trader consensus reflecting the barriers to rapid territorial change before late August 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$52,978End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including coastal defenses and cruise missile sites, as part of efforts to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes amid broader US-Iran escalation. These operations degraded specific capabilities but left Iranian administrative and IRGC control intact, consistent with Iran's de facto administration since 1971. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, backed by GCC statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Tehran rejects such positions and continues fortification and missile deployments. Diplomatic pressure and regional military posturing have not produced any shift in on-ground authority, with trader consensus reflecting the barriers to rapid territorial change before late August 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,978End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including coastal defenses and cruise missile sites, as part of efforts to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes amid broader US-Iran escalation. These operations degraded specific capabilities but left Iranian administrative and IRGC control intact, consistent with Iran's de facto administration since 1971. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, backed by GCC statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Tehran rejects such positions and continues fortification and missile deployments. Diplomatic pressure and regional military posturing have not produced any shift in on-ground authority, with trader consensus reflecting the barriers to rapid territorial change before late August 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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