Persistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside Middle East supply shocks and tariffs, anchor the Fed's 3.50-3.75% target range after the July 29 hold. The 9-3 FOMC vote, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress have elevated expectations for tightening in September or October. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid GDP expansion, reinforce a cautious stance that prices sequences without cuts as the baseline while leaving room for hawkish deviations in the "Other" outcome. The September FOMC decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 Vol.
$730,441 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 Vol.
$730,441 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$241,054 Vol.
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,277 Vol.
<1%
Other
$316,142 Vol.
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside Middle East supply shocks and tariffs, anchor the Fed's 3.50-3.75% target range after the July 29 hold. The 9-3 FOMC vote, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress have elevated expectations for tightening in September or October. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid GDP expansion, reinforce a cautious stance that prices sequences without cuts as the baseline while leaving room for hawkish deviations in the "Other" outcome. The September FOMC decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$730,441End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside Middle East supply shocks and tariffs, anchor the Fed's 3.50-3.75% target range after the July 29 hold. The 9-3 FOMC vote, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress have elevated expectations for tightening in September or October. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid GDP expansion, reinforce a cautious stance that prices sequences without cuts as the baseline while leaving room for hawkish deviations in the "Other" outcome. The September FOMC decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$730,441End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside Middle East supply shocks and tariffs, anchor the Fed's 3.50-3.75% target range after the July 29 hold. The 9-3 FOMC vote, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress have elevated expectations for tightening in September or October. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid GDP expansion, reinforce a cautious stance that prices sequences without cuts as the baseline while leaving room for hawkish deviations in the "Other" outcome. The September FOMC decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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