**Persistent above-target inflation and a divided FOMC have anchored trader expectations for consecutive holds at the September and October meetings, producing the 57.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause.** The realized July pause at the 3.50–3.75% target range, accompanied by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, established a hawkish baseline reinforced by the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate. Recent data, however, have tempered hike odds: the July employment report showed a 23,000 payroll decline with downward revisions, while CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year, core 2.5%). These prints have shifted market-implied odds toward a September hold near 70–74%, leaving “Other” sequences—primarily those including hikes—at 40.5%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky services inflation continue to support the restrictive stance, while upcoming August CPI, PCE, and employment releases remain key swing factors before the September 15–16 FOMC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$723,248 Vol.
$723,248 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
41%
Pause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$723,248 Vol.
$723,248 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$239,174 Vol.
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$60,116 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39,722 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 Vol.
<1%
Other
$313,685 Vol.
41%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation and a divided FOMC have anchored trader expectations for consecutive holds at the September and October meetings, producing the 57.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause.**
The realized July pause at the 3.50–3.75% target range, accompanied by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, established a hawkish baseline reinforced by the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate. Recent data, however, have tempered hike odds: the July employment report showed a 23,000 payroll decline with downward revisions, while CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year, core 2.5%). These prints have shifted market-implied odds toward a September hold near 70–74%, leaving “Other” sequences—primarily those including hikes—at 40.5%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky services inflation continue to support the restrictive stance, while upcoming August CPI, PCE, and employment releases remain key swing factors before the September 15–16 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$723,248End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation and a divided FOMC have anchored trader expectations for consecutive holds at the September and October meetings, producing the 57.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause.**
The realized July pause at the 3.50–3.75% target range, accompanied by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, established a hawkish baseline reinforced by the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate. Recent data, however, have tempered hike odds: the July employment report showed a 23,000 payroll decline with downward revisions, while CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year, core 2.5%). These prints have shifted market-implied odds toward a September hold near 70–74%, leaving “Other” sequences—primarily those including hikes—at 40.5%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky services inflation continue to support the restrictive stance, while upcoming August CPI, PCE, and employment releases remain key swing factors before the September 15–16 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$723,248End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation and a divided FOMC have anchored trader expectations for consecutive holds at the September and October meetings, producing the 57.5% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause.** The realized July pause at the 3.50–3.75% target range, accompanied by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, established a hawkish baseline reinforced by the June dot plot’s median 3.8% year-end funds rate. Recent data, however, have tempered hike odds: the July employment report showed a 23,000 payroll decline with downward revisions, while CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year, core 2.5%). These prints have shifted market-implied odds toward a September hold near 70–74%, leaving “Other” sequences—primarily those including hikes—at 40.5%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky services inflation continue to support the restrictive stance, while upcoming August CPI, PCE, and employment releases remain key swing factors before the September 15–16 FOMC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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