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Politics·Canada

Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner

Mike Derry 83%

Kyle Campbell 14%

John Roggeveen <1%

Kyle Joseph <1%

Polymarket

$10,931 Vol.

Mike Derry 83%

Kyle Campbell 14%

John Roggeveen <1%

Kyle Joseph <1%

Polymarket

$10,931 Vol.

icon for Mike Derry

Mike Derry

$8,253 Vol.

83%

icon for Kyle Campbell

Kyle Campbell

$2,067 Vol.

14%

icon for John Roggeveen

John Roggeveen

$311 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kyle Joseph

Kyle Joseph

$300 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).The United Conservative Party's strong historical performance in the Calgary-Shaw riding, where the party secured comfortable majorities in recent provincial elections, underpins Mike Derry's leading position in the by-election market. Derry secured the UCP nomination in June 2026 by defeating city councillor Dan McLean in a membership vote and holds full backing from Premier Danielle Smith ahead of the September 14 vote to replace former MLA Rebecca Schulz. Opposition candidates, including NDP nominee Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph, face structural challenges in a south Calgary district with established UCP organizational advantages and voter base. Nominations closed in late August with no major late developments reported that would alter the competitive landscape.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$10,931
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).The United Conservative Party's strong historical performance in the Calgary-Shaw riding, where the party secured comfortable majorities in recent provincial elections, underpins Mike Derry's leading position in the by-election market. Derry secured the UCP nomination in June 2026 by defeating city councillor Dan McLean in a membership vote and holds full backing from Premier Danielle Smith ahead of the September 14 vote to replace former MLA Rebecca Schulz. Opposition candidates, including NDP nominee Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph, face structural challenges in a south Calgary district with established UCP organizational advantages and voter base. Nominations closed in late August with no major late developments reported that would alter the competitive landscape.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$10,931
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Derry" at 83%, followed by "Kyle Campbell" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" has generated $10.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" is "Mike Derry" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kyle Campbell" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.