Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Santa Catarina reflects the state’s status as a conservative stronghold in Brazil’s South, where the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro family have maintained consistent dominance since 2018. Santa Catarina delivered strong support for Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles, and Flávio, as the endorsed PL nominee carrying the family banner, benefits from aligned voter blocs including evangelicals and rural conservatives amid national polling that still shows him competitive though trailing incumbent Lula overall. Recent party conventions and endorsements have consolidated right-wing backing behind him locally, with minimal fragmentation from other listed contenders. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout surges among centrist or left-leaning voters, unexpected scandals, or stronger performances by regional alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado that erode the PL margin before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Flavio Bolsonaro 96.5%
Lula 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 96.5%
Lula 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,852 Vol.
97%
Lula
$280 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$270 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$370 Vol.
1%
Samara
$370 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$270 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$270 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$270 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$270 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$270 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$270 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$270 Vol.
1%
Zema
$270 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Santa Catarina reflects the state’s status as a conservative stronghold in Brazil’s South, where the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro family have maintained consistent dominance since 2018. Santa Catarina delivered strong support for Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles, and Flávio, as the endorsed PL nominee carrying the family banner, benefits from aligned voter blocs including evangelicals and rural conservatives amid national polling that still shows him competitive though trailing incumbent Lula overall. Recent party conventions and endorsements have consolidated right-wing backing behind him locally, with minimal fragmentation from other listed contenders. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout surges among centrist or left-leaning voters, unexpected scandals, or stronger performances by regional alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado that erode the PL margin before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$5,304End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Santa Catarina reflects the state’s status as a conservative stronghold in Brazil’s South, where the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro family have maintained consistent dominance since 2018. Santa Catarina delivered strong support for Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles, and Flávio, as the endorsed PL nominee carrying the family banner, benefits from aligned voter blocs including evangelicals and rural conservatives amid national polling that still shows him competitive though trailing incumbent Lula overall. Recent party conventions and endorsements have consolidated right-wing backing behind him locally, with minimal fragmentation from other listed contenders. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout surges among centrist or left-leaning voters, unexpected scandals, or stronger performances by regional alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado that erode the PL margin before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,304End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro’s commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Santa Catarina reflects the state’s status as a conservative stronghold in Brazil’s South, where the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro family have maintained consistent dominance since 2018. Santa Catarina delivered strong support for Jair Bolsonaro in prior cycles, and Flávio, as the endorsed PL nominee carrying the family banner, benefits from aligned voter blocs including evangelicals and rural conservatives amid national polling that still shows him competitive though trailing incumbent Lula overall. Recent party conventions and endorsements have consolidated right-wing backing behind him locally, with minimal fragmentation from other listed contenders. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout surges among centrist or left-leaning voters, unexpected scandals, or stronger performances by regional alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado that erode the PL margin before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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