Strong scientific consensus from bolide detection networks and NEO surveys supports the 94.9% market-implied odds against a 100 kt airburst or impact in 2026. Objects producing roughly this yield (around 15 m diameter) occur globally on average every 20–30 years according to CNEOS fireball data and atmospheric entry models, yielding low single-year probability. No catalogued near-Earth asteroids currently carry non-negligible impact risk for 2026, and ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified any new threats capable of reaching that energy threshold. Traders therefore price the outcome as a low-likelihood statistical event rather than an imminent hazard. A late discovery of a small, dark asteroid on a direct trajectory remains the main realistic scenario that could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Strong scientific consensus from bolide detection networks and NEO surveys supports the 94.9% market-implied odds against a 100 kt airburst or impact in 2026. Objects producing roughly this yield (around 15 m diameter) occur globally on average every 20–30 years according to CNEOS fireball data and atmospheric entry models, yielding low single-year probability. No catalogued near-Earth asteroids currently carry non-negligible impact risk for 2026, and ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified any new threats capable of reaching that energy threshold. Traders therefore price the outcome as a low-likelihood statistical event rather than an imminent hazard. A late discovery of a small, dark asteroid on a direct trajectory remains the main realistic scenario that could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,915End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Strong scientific consensus from bolide detection networks and NEO surveys supports the 94.9% market-implied odds against a 100 kt airburst or impact in 2026. Objects producing roughly this yield (around 15 m diameter) occur globally on average every 20–30 years according to CNEOS fireball data and atmospheric entry models, yielding low single-year probability. No catalogued near-Earth asteroids currently carry non-negligible impact risk for 2026, and ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified any new threats capable of reaching that energy threshold. Traders therefore price the outcome as a low-likelihood statistical event rather than an imminent hazard. A late discovery of a small, dark asteroid on a direct trajectory remains the main realistic scenario that could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,915End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong scientific consensus from bolide detection networks and NEO surveys supports the 94.9% market-implied odds against a 100 kt airburst or impact in 2026. Objects producing roughly this yield (around 15 m diameter) occur globally on average every 20–30 years according to CNEOS fireball data and atmospheric entry models, yielding low single-year probability. No catalogued near-Earth asteroids currently carry non-negligible impact risk for 2026, and ongoing radar and optical surveys have not identified any new threats capable of reaching that energy threshold. Traders therefore price the outcome as a low-likelihood statistical event rather than an imminent hazard. A late discovery of a small, dark asteroid on a direct trajectory remains the main realistic scenario that could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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