Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, which tracks thousands of near-Earth objects with refined orbital data, has identified no asteroids large enough (typically 20–50 meters) to deliver 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026. This aligns with the low historical rate of such airbursts—roughly one every 15–20 years based on bolide records—supporting the 95.9% market-implied probability of “No.” No objects on the risk list or close-approach calendars show relevant trajectories or Palermo Scale ratings indicating elevated hazard this year. While an undetected small NEO with uncertain orbit could theoretically produce an unforecast airburst, ongoing surveys and post-event fireball detection make such an outcome highly improbable before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, which tracks thousands of near-Earth objects with refined orbital data, has identified no asteroids large enough (typically 20–50 meters) to deliver 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026. This aligns with the low historical rate of such airbursts—roughly one every 15–20 years based on bolide records—supporting the 95.9% market-implied probability of “No.” No objects on the risk list or close-approach calendars show relevant trajectories or Palermo Scale ratings indicating elevated hazard this year. While an undetected small NEO with uncertain orbit could theoretically produce an unforecast airburst, ongoing surveys and post-event fireball detection make such an outcome highly improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,915End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, which tracks thousands of near-Earth objects with refined orbital data, has identified no asteroids large enough (typically 20–50 meters) to deliver 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026. This aligns with the low historical rate of such airbursts—roughly one every 15–20 years based on bolide records—supporting the 95.9% market-implied probability of “No.” No objects on the risk list or close-approach calendars show relevant trajectories or Palermo Scale ratings indicating elevated hazard this year. While an undetected small NEO with uncertain orbit could theoretically produce an unforecast airburst, ongoing surveys and post-event fireball detection make such an outcome highly improbable before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,915End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, which tracks thousands of near-Earth objects with refined orbital data, has identified no asteroids large enough (typically 20–50 meters) to deliver 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026. This aligns with the low historical rate of such airbursts—roughly one every 15–20 years based on bolide records—supporting the 95.9% market-implied probability of “No.” No objects on the risk list or close-approach calendars show relevant trajectories or Palermo Scale ratings indicating elevated hazard this year. While an undetected small NEO with uncertain orbit could theoretically produce an unforecast airburst, ongoing surveys and post-event fireball detection make such an outcome highly improbable before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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