Recent inflation data, including July PCE rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year—above the Fed’s 2% target—has reinforced expectations for steady or tighter monetary policy, keeping the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75%. This backdrop, combined with resilient labor market readings and geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict elevating energy prices, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% and sustained the mortgage-to-Treasury spread around 2 percentage points. As a result, 30-year fixed rates have hovered in the 6.53–6.75% range through late August 2026 per Freddie Mac, Zillow, and lender surveys, with forecasts from Fannie Mae and others projecting averages near 6.5–6.8% through year-end amid fiscal deficit-driven bond supply. Upcoming CPI and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting will shape near-term yield movements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
$50,792 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
↑ 7.50%
41%
↑ 7.25%
49%
↑ 7.00%
47%
↑ 6.75%
83%
↓ 6.50%
44%
↓ 6.25%
43%
↓ 6.00%
43%
↓ 5.90%
18%
↓ 5.70%
2%
↓ 5.50%
10%
$50,792 Vol.
↑ 7.50%
$0 Vol.
41%
↑ 7.25%
$62 Vol.
49%
↑ 7.00%
$64 Vol.
47%
↑ 6.75%
$181 Vol.
83%
↓ 6.50%
$0 Vol.
44%
↓ 6.25%
$0 Vol.
43%
↓ 6.00%
$0 Vol.
43%
↓ 5.90%
$6,201 Vol.
18%
↓ 5.70%
$7,209 Vol.
2%
↓ 5.50%
$72 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Recent inflation data, including July PCE rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year—above the Fed’s 2% target—has reinforced expectations for steady or tighter monetary policy, keeping the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75%. This backdrop, combined with resilient labor market readings and geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict elevating energy prices, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% and sustained the mortgage-to-Treasury spread around 2 percentage points. As a result, 30-year fixed rates have hovered in the 6.53–6.75% range through late August 2026 per Freddie Mac, Zillow, and lender surveys, with forecasts from Fannie Mae and others projecting averages near 6.5–6.8% through year-end amid fiscal deficit-driven bond supply. Upcoming CPI and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting will shape near-term yield movements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$50,792End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Recent inflation data, including July PCE rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year—above the Fed’s 2% target—has reinforced expectations for steady or tighter monetary policy, keeping the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75%. This backdrop, combined with resilient labor market readings and geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict elevating energy prices, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% and sustained the mortgage-to-Treasury spread around 2 percentage points. As a result, 30-year fixed rates have hovered in the 6.53–6.75% range through late August 2026 per Freddie Mac, Zillow, and lender surveys, with forecasts from Fannie Mae and others projecting averages near 6.5–6.8% through year-end amid fiscal deficit-driven bond supply. Upcoming CPI and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting will shape near-term yield movements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Volume
$50,792End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data, including July PCE rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year—above the Fed’s 2% target—has reinforced expectations for steady or tighter monetary policy, keeping the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75%. This backdrop, combined with resilient labor market readings and geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict elevating energy prices, has anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% and sustained the mortgage-to-Treasury spread around 2 percentage points. As a result, 30-year fixed rates have hovered in the 6.53–6.75% range through late August 2026 per Freddie Mac, Zillow, and lender surveys, with forecasts from Fannie Mae and others projecting averages near 6.5–6.8% through year-end amid fiscal deficit-driven bond supply. Upcoming CPI and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting will shape near-term yield movements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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