Macron’s final months in office feature a clear preference for revised legislation over direct popular votes, as shown by his August 2026 response to the Constitutional Council’s rejection of the under-15 social media ban. Rather than pursuing a referendum under Article 11, he directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to draft compliant new text for parliamentary passage by spring 2027. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and recent ethical or institutional debates, including assisted dying, resolved through the legislature or court rulings that narrowed referendum scope. With the April 2027 presidential election looming and a fragmented National Assembly, trader consensus at 96.8% “No” reflects the absence of any announced decree or procedural trigger before year-end. Late-session budget disputes or an unforeseen deadlock could theoretically prompt a shift, though no such development is currently underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Macron’s final months in office feature a clear preference for revised legislation over direct popular votes, as shown by his August 2026 response to the Constitutional Council’s rejection of the under-15 social media ban. Rather than pursuing a referendum under Article 11, he directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to draft compliant new text for parliamentary passage by spring 2027. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and recent ethical or institutional debates, including assisted dying, resolved through the legislature or court rulings that narrowed referendum scope. With the April 2027 presidential election looming and a fragmented National Assembly, trader consensus at 96.8% “No” reflects the absence of any announced decree or procedural trigger before year-end. Late-session budget disputes or an unforeseen deadlock could theoretically prompt a shift, though no such development is currently underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Macron’s final months in office feature a clear preference for revised legislation over direct popular votes, as shown by his August 2026 response to the Constitutional Council’s rejection of the under-15 social media ban. Rather than pursuing a referendum under Article 11, he directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to draft compliant new text for parliamentary passage by spring 2027. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and recent ethical or institutional debates, including assisted dying, resolved through the legislature or court rulings that narrowed referendum scope. With the April 2027 presidential election looming and a fragmented National Assembly, trader consensus at 96.8% “No” reflects the absence of any announced decree or procedural trigger before year-end. Late-session budget disputes or an unforeseen deadlock could theoretically prompt a shift, though no such development is currently underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$33End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Macron’s final months in office feature a clear preference for revised legislation over direct popular votes, as shown by his August 2026 response to the Constitutional Council’s rejection of the under-15 social media ban. Rather than pursuing a referendum under Article 11, he directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to draft compliant new text for parliamentary passage by spring 2027. France has held no national referendum since 2005, and recent ethical or institutional debates, including assisted dying, resolved through the legislature or court rulings that narrowed referendum scope. With the April 2027 presidential election looming and a fragmented National Assembly, trader consensus at 96.8% “No” reflects the absence of any announced decree or procedural trigger before year-end. Late-session budget disputes or an unforeseen deadlock could theoretically prompt a shift, though no such development is currently underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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