France's minority government faces entrenched parliamentary fragmentation that has repeatedly delayed budget adoption, as seen in the 2026 fiscal process. With the 2027 presidential election looming, opposition parties have strong incentives to withhold support for spending restraint needed to narrow the roughly 5% of GDP deficit amid rising 10-year bond yields above 4.13%. Recent government warnings, including an Inspection générale des finances report highlighting at least 0.5 percentage point deficit widening under a prolonged special law, underscore the impasse. Traders price the 68.5% odds for no passage by year-end on these structural barriers and limited time for compromise before October debates.