Carlos Alcaraz’s confirmed return as the defending U.S. Open champion and No. 2 seed drives the 98.3% implied probability for participation. The 23-year-old Spaniard announced his comeback in mid-August after a four-month right-wrist layoff that began at the Barcelona Open and caused withdrawals from the French Open and Wimbledon. Rigorous practice sessions, including extended work with Holger Rune, cleared him for competition without mechanical changes, and he has already competed in mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams at Flushing Meadows. The official singles draw lists a first-round matchup against Roman Safiullin, with the main draw set to begin August 30. Trader consensus reflects these verified developments and the absence of fresh setbacks, though a sudden flare-up or precautionary withdrawal remains a low-probability factor that could still alter the outcome before play begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated98% chance
$101,376 Vol.
$101,376 Vol.
98% chance
$101,376 Vol.
$101,376 Vol.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."
Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz’s confirmed return as the defending U.S. Open champion and No. 2 seed drives the 98.3% implied probability for participation. The 23-year-old Spaniard announced his comeback in mid-August after a four-month right-wrist layoff that began at the Barcelona Open and caused withdrawals from the French Open and Wimbledon. Rigorous practice sessions, including extended work with Holger Rune, cleared him for competition without mechanical changes, and he has already competed in mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams at Flushing Meadows. The official singles draw lists a first-round matchup against Roman Safiullin, with the main draw set to begin August 30. Trader consensus reflects these verified developments and the absence of fresh setbacks, though a sudden flare-up or precautionary withdrawal remains a low-probability factor that could still alter the outcome before play begins.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."
Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$101,376Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."
Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz’s confirmed return as the defending U.S. Open champion and No. 2 seed drives the 98.3% implied probability for participation. The 23-year-old Spaniard announced his comeback in mid-August after a four-month right-wrist layoff that began at the Barcelona Open and caused withdrawals from the French Open and Wimbledon. Rigorous practice sessions, including extended work with Holger Rune, cleared him for competition without mechanical changes, and he has already competed in mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams at Flushing Meadows. The official singles draw lists a first-round matchup against Roman Safiullin, with the main draw set to begin August 30. Trader consensus reflects these verified developments and the absence of fresh setbacks, though a sudden flare-up or precautionary withdrawal remains a low-probability factor that could still alter the outcome before play begins.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."
Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."
If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,376Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Carlos Alcaraz’s confirmed return as the defending U.S. Open champion and No. 2 seed drives the 98.3% implied probability for participation. The 23-year-old Spaniard announced his comeback in mid-August after a four-month right-wrist layoff that began at the Barcelona Open and caused withdrawals from the French Open and Wimbledon. Rigorous practice sessions, including extended work with Holger Rune, cleared him for competition without mechanical changes, and he has already competed in mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams at Flushing Meadows. The official singles draw lists a first-round matchup against Roman Safiullin, with the main draw set to begin August 30. Trader consensus reflects these verified developments and the absence of fresh setbacks, though a sudden flare-up or precautionary withdrawal remains a low-probability factor that could still alter the outcome before play begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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