With only four months left in 2026 and no magnitude 6+ events recorded statewide this year per USGS data, trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 87.9% implied probability. Recent activity remains limited to minor tremors, including a 5.6 near Ukiah in June and a 4.8 offshore in late August, consistent with background seismicity rather than foreshock patterns. Long-term UCERF3 forecasts place M7+ recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas at decades to centuries, making a late-year rupture statistically improbable despite elevated strain noted in southern California studies. Monitoring agencies report no anomalous signals or model shifts that would alter this outlook before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. With only four months left in 2026 and no magnitude 6+ events recorded statewide this year per USGS data, trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 87.9% implied probability. Recent activity remains limited to minor tremors, including a 5.6 near Ukiah in June and a 4.8 offshore in late August, consistent with background seismicity rather than foreshock patterns. Long-term UCERF3 forecasts place M7+ recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas at decades to centuries, making a late-year rupture statistically improbable despite elevated strain noted in southern California studies. Monitoring agencies report no anomalous signals or model shifts that would alter this outlook before December 31.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$5,699End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. With only four months left in 2026 and no magnitude 6+ events recorded statewide this year per USGS data, trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 87.9% implied probability. Recent activity remains limited to minor tremors, including a 5.6 near Ukiah in June and a 4.8 offshore in late August, consistent with background seismicity rather than foreshock patterns. Long-term UCERF3 forecasts place M7+ recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas at decades to centuries, making a late-year rupture statistically improbable despite elevated strain noted in southern California studies. Monitoring agencies report no anomalous signals or model shifts that would alter this outlook before December 31.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volume
$5,699End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With only four months left in 2026 and no magnitude 6+ events recorded statewide this year per USGS data, trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 87.9% implied probability. Recent activity remains limited to minor tremors, including a 5.6 near Ukiah in June and a 4.8 offshore in late August, consistent with background seismicity rather than foreshock patterns. Long-term UCERF3 forecasts place M7+ recurrence intervals on major faults such as the San Andreas at decades to centuries, making a late-year rupture statistically improbable despite elevated strain noted in southern California studies. Monitoring agencies report no anomalous signals or model shifts that would alter this outlook before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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