**Trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 99.8% because only two days remain until the August 31 deadline, leaving insufficient time for the diplomatic, legal, and ceremonial steps required for any new accession to the Abraham Accords.** Recent reporting through late August 2026 shows continued discussion of potential future members—most prominently Saudi Arabia, where U.S. President Trump has conditioned progress on a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement on normalization with Israel—yet Riyadh continues to link any such step to verifiable advances on Palestinian statehood, a precondition that has not been met. Other candidates such as Syria, Indonesia, Oman, or Qatar remain in preliminary or stalled talks with no public signals of imminent formal accession. The last addition, Kazakhstan in November 2025, followed months of preparation, underscoring that these agreements do not materialize on short notice. While an unforeseen breakthrough announcement remains theoretically possible, the compressed timeline, entrenched negotiating positions, and absence of any verified last-minute diplomatic movement make a new signatory by the cutoff date highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$56,848 Vol.
$56,848 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$56,848 Vol.
$56,848 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 99.8% because only two days remain until the August 31 deadline, leaving insufficient time for the diplomatic, legal, and ceremonial steps required for any new accession to the Abraham Accords.**
Recent reporting through late August 2026 shows continued discussion of potential future members—most prominently Saudi Arabia, where U.S. President Trump has conditioned progress on a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement on normalization with Israel—yet Riyadh continues to link any such step to verifiable advances on Palestinian statehood, a precondition that has not been met. Other candidates such as Syria, Indonesia, Oman, or Qatar remain in preliminary or stalled talks with no public signals of imminent formal accession.
The last addition, Kazakhstan in November 2025, followed months of preparation, underscoring that these agreements do not materialize on short notice.
While an unforeseen breakthrough announcement remains theoretically possible, the compressed timeline, entrenched negotiating positions, and absence of any verified last-minute diplomatic movement make a new signatory by the cutoff date highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$56,848End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 99.8% because only two days remain until the August 31 deadline, leaving insufficient time for the diplomatic, legal, and ceremonial steps required for any new accession to the Abraham Accords.**
Recent reporting through late August 2026 shows continued discussion of potential future members—most prominently Saudi Arabia, where U.S. President Trump has conditioned progress on a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement on normalization with Israel—yet Riyadh continues to link any such step to verifiable advances on Palestinian statehood, a precondition that has not been met. Other candidates such as Syria, Indonesia, Oman, or Qatar remain in preliminary or stalled talks with no public signals of imminent formal accession.
The last addition, Kazakhstan in November 2025, followed months of preparation, underscoring that these agreements do not materialize on short notice.
While an unforeseen breakthrough announcement remains theoretically possible, the compressed timeline, entrenched negotiating positions, and absence of any verified last-minute diplomatic movement make a new signatory by the cutoff date highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$56,848End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors “No” at 99.8% because only two days remain until the August 31 deadline, leaving insufficient time for the diplomatic, legal, and ceremonial steps required for any new accession to the Abraham Accords.** Recent reporting through late August 2026 shows continued discussion of potential future members—most prominently Saudi Arabia, where U.S. President Trump has conditioned progress on a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement on normalization with Israel—yet Riyadh continues to link any such step to verifiable advances on Palestinian statehood, a precondition that has not been met. Other candidates such as Syria, Indonesia, Oman, or Qatar remain in preliminary or stalled talks with no public signals of imminent formal accession. The last addition, Kazakhstan in November 2025, followed months of preparation, underscoring that these agreements do not materialize on short notice. While an unforeseen breakthrough announcement remains theoretically possible, the compressed timeline, entrenched negotiating positions, and absence of any verified last-minute diplomatic movement make a new signatory by the cutoff date highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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