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icon for Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

icon for Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

10% chance
Polymarket

$76,269 Vol.

10% chance
Polymarket

$76,269 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No BRICS member has issued a formal withdrawal notice or signaled intent to exit in 2026, supporting trader consensus that the bloc will remain intact through year-end. All full members participated in the May foreign ministers meeting under India’s rotating chairmanship despite unresolved differences over the Iran conflict and regional tensions that blocked joint statements. Interest from more than 30 nations seeking membership or partner status, combined with preparations for the September leaders’ summit in New Delhi, reinforces institutional continuity. Past precedents, such as Argentina’s 2024 decision not to join after a leadership change, have not prompted similar reversals among current participants, and internal frictions have produced no policy shifts or exits to date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,269
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No BRICS member has issued a formal withdrawal notice or signaled intent to exit in 2026, supporting trader consensus that the bloc will remain intact through year-end. All full members participated in the May foreign ministers meeting under India’s rotating chairmanship despite unresolved differences over the Iran conflict and regional tensions that blocked joint statements. Interest from more than 30 nations seeking membership or partner status, combined with preparations for the September leaders’ summit in New Delhi, reinforces institutional continuity. Past precedents, such as Argentina’s 2024 decision not to join after a leadership change, have not prompted similar reversals among current participants, and internal frictions have produced no policy shifts or exits to date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,269
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 10% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 10¢, the market collectively assigns a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" has generated $76.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" is 10% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.