SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 but faces firm barriers to S&P 500 inclusion this year. S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility rules in early June, requiring positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters plus a mandatory 12-month seasoning period. SpaceX posted a $4.94 billion 2025 net loss and continued operating shortfalls into 2026, with profitability not expected before 2027. These criteria, applied without exceptions even for large IPOs, drive the 94.9% market-implied odds against 2026 addition. While an unexpected rule revision or rapid earnings turnaround could alter the path, current financials and index policies make such shifts improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$21,033 Vol.
$21,033 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$21,033 Vol.
$21,033 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 but faces firm barriers to S&P 500 inclusion this year. S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility rules in early June, requiring positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters plus a mandatory 12-month seasoning period. SpaceX posted a $4.94 billion 2025 net loss and continued operating shortfalls into 2026, with profitability not expected before 2027. These criteria, applied without exceptions even for large IPOs, drive the 94.9% market-implied odds against 2026 addition. While an unexpected rule revision or rapid earnings turnaround could alter the path, current financials and index policies make such shifts improbable before year-end.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
Volume
$21,033End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 but faces firm barriers to S&P 500 inclusion this year. S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility rules in early June, requiring positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters plus a mandatory 12-month seasoning period. SpaceX posted a $4.94 billion 2025 net loss and continued operating shortfalls into 2026, with profitability not expected before 2027. These criteria, applied without exceptions even for large IPOs, drive the 94.9% market-implied odds against 2026 addition. While an unexpected rule revision or rapid earnings turnaround could alter the path, current financials and index policies make such shifts improbable before year-end.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Volume
$21,033End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion Nasdaq IPO in June 2026 but faces firm barriers to S&P 500 inclusion this year. S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility rules in early June, requiring positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters plus a mandatory 12-month seasoning period. SpaceX posted a $4.94 billion 2025 net loss and continued operating shortfalls into 2026, with profitability not expected before 2027. These criteria, applied without exceptions even for large IPOs, drive the 94.9% market-implied odds against 2026 addition. While an unexpected rule revision or rapid earnings turnaround could alter the path, current financials and index policies make such shifts improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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