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Politics·Mexico

Sinaloa Governor Election Winner

icon for Sinaloa Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Sinaloa Governor Election Winner

Imelda Castro Castro 51%

María Teresa Guerra Ochoa 19%

Sergio Torres Félix 5%

Tomás de Jesús López Bajo 4.5%

Polymarket

$17,074 Vol.

Imelda Castro Castro 51%

María Teresa Guerra Ochoa 19%

Sergio Torres Félix 5%

Tomás de Jesús López Bajo 4.5%

Polymarket

$17,074 Vol.

icon for Imelda Castro Castro

Imelda Castro Castro

$6,825 Vol.

51%

icon for María Teresa Guerra Ochoa

María Teresa Guerra Ochoa

$4,878 Vol.

19%

icon for Sergio Torres Félix

Sergio Torres Félix

$317 Vol.

5%

icon for Tomás de Jesús López Bajo

Tomás de Jesús López Bajo

$328 Vol.

5%

icon for Omar López Campos

Omar López Campos

$439 Vol.

5%

icon for Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil

Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil

$288 Vol.

4%

icon for Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros

Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros

$332 Vol.

4%

icon for Graciela Domínguez Nava

Graciela Domínguez Nava

$287 Vol.

3%

icon for Eduardo Ortiz Hernández

Eduardo Ortiz Hernández

$273 Vol.

3%

icon for Mario Zamora Gastélum

Mario Zamora Gastélum

$225 Vol.

3%

icon for María Fernanda Rivera

María Fernanda Rivera

$247 Vol.

2%

icon for Lucila Ayala de Moreschi

Lucila Ayala de Moreschi

$236 Vol.

2%

icon for Guillermo Romero Rodríguez

Guillermo Romero Rodríguez

$268 Vol.

2%

icon for Roxana Rubio Valdez

Roxana Rubio Valdez

$268 Vol.

2%

icon for Jesús Alfonso Ibarra Ramos

Jesús Alfonso Ibarra Ramos

$268 Vol.

2%

icon for Ricardo Madrid Pérez

Ricardo Madrid Pérez

$273 Vol.

2%

icon for Estrella Palacios Domínguez

Estrella Palacios Domínguez

$268 Vol.

2%

icon for Paloma Sánchez Ramos

Paloma Sánchez Ramos

$253 Vol.

2%

icon for Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García

Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García

$268 Vol.

1%

icon for Jesús Fernando García Hernández

Jesús Fernando García Hernández

$268 Vol.

1%

icon for Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez

Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez

$268 Vol.

1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.**Imelda Castro Castro holds a narrow edge in trader pricing at 50.5% amid a crowded field for the June 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election, with María Teresa Guerra Ochoa at 18.5% and remaining candidates clustered well below 5%.** Morena maintains a commanding position in statewide polling at roughly 38-42% party identification, well ahead of the PRI, PAN, and Movimiento Ciudadano. Internal surveys consistently place Castro ahead of other Morena aspirants for the nomination, supported by her Senate record and early organizing. Recent turmoil surrounding incumbent Rubén Rocha Moya’s repeated license requests and the pending congressional selection of an interim governor has injected short-term uncertainty into party succession dynamics, yet has not materially altered Castro’s lead or Morena’s overall dominance. The fragmented opposition and extended timeline until the general election keep probabilities tightly bunched, as nomination contests and late-cycle shifts remain key variables that could realign trader consensus.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$17,074
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.**Imelda Castro Castro holds a narrow edge in trader pricing at 50.5% amid a crowded field for the June 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election, with María Teresa Guerra Ochoa at 18.5% and remaining candidates clustered well below 5%.** Morena maintains a commanding position in statewide polling at roughly 38-42% party identification, well ahead of the PRI, PAN, and Movimiento Ciudadano. Internal surveys consistently place Castro ahead of other Morena aspirants for the nomination, supported by her Senate record and early organizing. Recent turmoil surrounding incumbent Rubén Rocha Moya’s repeated license requests and the pending congressional selection of an interim governor has injected short-term uncertainty into party succession dynamics, yet has not materially altered Castro’s lead or Morena’s overall dominance. The fragmented opposition and extended timeline until the general election keep probabilities tightly bunched, as nomination contests and late-cycle shifts remain key variables that could realign trader consensus.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$17,074
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Imelda Castro Castro" at 51%, followed by "María Teresa Guerra Ochoa" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" has generated $17.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" is "Imelda Castro Castro" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "María Teresa Guerra Ochoa" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sinaloa Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.