The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election on September 3 features a tight three-way contest among NDP nominee Fatima Shaban, Liberal Ahsanul Hafiz, and Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun, with several minor-party and independent candidates also on the ballot following the February resignation of former NDP MPP Doly Begum. Trader consensus around 50% implied probabilities for the leading names reflects uncertainty over whether the riding’s recent NDP base will hold amid Liberal organizational momentum and PC efforts to capitalize on the open seat. Recent nomination closures and the start of advance voting have kept the race balanced, as local community ties, turnout among core supporters, and last-minute party resources could produce separation before polls close.