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icon for Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Global Elections

Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Global Elections

Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place

Carol de Toni 38%

Carlos Bolsonaro 36%

Esperidião Amin 16.7%

Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 1.0%

Polymarket

$12,049 Vol.

Carol de Toni 38%

Carlos Bolsonaro 36%

Esperidião Amin 16.7%

Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 1.0%

Polymarket

$12,049 Vol.

icon for Carol de Toni

Carol de Toni

$3,250 Vol.

45%

icon for Carlos Bolsonaro

Carlos Bolsonaro

$3,183 Vol.

36%

icon for Esperidião Amin

Esperidião Amin

$924 Vol.

19%

icon for Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter

Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter

$341 Vol.

1%

icon for Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado

Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado

$786 Vol.

1%

icon for Décio Lima

Décio Lima

$489 Vol.

1%

icon for Marlene Soccas

Marlene Soccas

$531 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carol

Carol

$483 Vol.

<1%

icon for Joaninha de Oliveira

Joaninha de Oliveira

$460 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lunelli

Lunelli

$476 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcos Dorval

Marcos Dorval

$289 Vol.

<1%

icon for Afrânio Boppré

Afrânio Boppré

$435 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jeferson da Rocha

Jeferson da Rocha

$401 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carol de Toni (PL) holds a narrow lead in trader pricing for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate contest, where voters select two senators and recent polling shows her, fellow PL candidate Carlos Bolsonaro, and Esperidião Amin (PP) locked in a technical three-way tie within margins of error. The August party conventions finalized registrations, with the PL pairing de Toni—a sitting federal deputy strong in the west of the state—and Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, on the same ticket backing Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election. Internal PL divisions earlier displaced Amin from that slate, consolidating his separate PP bid. High undecided shares and the dual-vote format keep separation uncertain ahead of the final stretch, with any late shifts in turnout among conservative or rural blocs the most likely catalyst for reordering.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,049
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carol de Toni (PL) holds a narrow lead in trader pricing for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate contest, where voters select two senators and recent polling shows her, fellow PL candidate Carlos Bolsonaro, and Esperidião Amin (PP) locked in a technical three-way tie within margins of error. The August party conventions finalized registrations, with the PL pairing de Toni—a sitting federal deputy strong in the west of the state—and Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, on the same ticket backing Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election. Internal PL divisions earlier displaced Amin from that slate, consolidating his separate PP bid. High undecided shares and the dual-vote format keep separation uncertain ahead of the final stretch, with any late shifts in turnout among conservative or rural blocs the most likely catalyst for reordering.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,049
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carol de Toni" at 45%, followed by "Carlos Bolsonaro" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $12K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Carol de Toni" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Bolsonaro" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.