Caleb Mutfwang, the incumbent governor of Plateau State since 2023, holds an 82% implied probability as the frontrunner for the February 2027 gubernatorial election. His recent defection to the All Progressives Congress and subsequent securing of the party nomination have consolidated support among key political actors and voters aligned with the federal ruling party. This shift followed earlier speculation and aligns him with broader national dynamics under President Tinubu. Lower probabilities for challengers such as John Sunday Sura and others reflect limited visibility of viable opposition candidates or alternative party tickets at this stage. Scheduled primaries, candidate declarations, and any emerging coalition talks over the coming months could still influence trader assessments ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMutfwang Caleb Manasseh 82%
Kefas Ropshik 6%
Margaret Inusa Yahaya 6%
Sunday Garba Biggs 5.3%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh
82%
Kefas Ropshik
6%
Margaret Inusa Yahaya
6%
Sunday Garba Biggs
5%
John Sunday Sura
4%
Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh 82%
Kefas Ropshik 6%
Margaret Inusa Yahaya 6%
Sunday Garba Biggs 5.3%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh
$1,003 Vol.
82%
Kefas Ropshik
$110 Vol.
6%
Margaret Inusa Yahaya
$90 Vol.
6%
Sunday Garba Biggs
$142 Vol.
5%
John Sunday Sura
$115 Vol.
4%
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Plateau State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Caleb Mutfwang, the incumbent governor of Plateau State since 2023, holds an 82% implied probability as the frontrunner for the February 2027 gubernatorial election. His recent defection to the All Progressives Congress and subsequent securing of the party nomination have consolidated support among key political actors and voters aligned with the federal ruling party. This shift followed earlier speculation and aligns him with broader national dynamics under President Tinubu. Lower probabilities for challengers such as John Sunday Sura and others reflect limited visibility of viable opposition candidates or alternative party tickets at this stage. Scheduled primaries, candidate declarations, and any emerging coalition talks over the coming months could still influence trader assessments ahead of the vote.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Plateau State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,461End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 5:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Plateau State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Caleb Mutfwang, the incumbent governor of Plateau State since 2023, holds an 82% implied probability as the frontrunner for the February 2027 gubernatorial election. His recent defection to the All Progressives Congress and subsequent securing of the party nomination have consolidated support among key political actors and voters aligned with the federal ruling party. This shift followed earlier speculation and aligns him with broader national dynamics under President Tinubu. Lower probabilities for challengers such as John Sunday Sura and others reflect limited visibility of viable opposition candidates or alternative party tickets at this stage. Scheduled primaries, candidate declarations, and any emerging coalition talks over the coming months could still influence trader assessments ahead of the vote.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Plateau State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Volume
$1,461End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 5:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Caleb Mutfwang, the incumbent governor of Plateau State since 2023, holds an 82% implied probability as the frontrunner for the February 2027 gubernatorial election. His recent defection to the All Progressives Congress and subsequent securing of the party nomination have consolidated support among key political actors and voters aligned with the federal ruling party. This shift followed earlier speculation and aligns him with broader national dynamics under President Tinubu. Lower probabilities for challengers such as John Sunday Sura and others reflect limited visibility of viable opposition candidates or alternative party tickets at this stage. Scheduled primaries, candidate declarations, and any emerging coalition talks over the coming months could still influence trader assessments ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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