Ahmed Aliyu, the incumbent APC governor of Sokoto State, holds an 88% implied probability in the market due to unified party endorsement secured through a May 2026 consensus affirmation as the APC nominee. This positioning stems from visible progress on infrastructure, security, and his 9-point agenda, alongside APC organizational strength in the state. Opposition remains fragmented, with figures such as former governor Aminu Tambuwal shifting to the ADC and a wide field of other candidates—including Manir Muhammad Dan Iya at 5% and Mustapha Shehu at 2.5%—showing limited coordinated traction or statewide support. The February 6, 2027, INEC vote date and the large roster of untested names at 50% underscore ongoing uncertainty, though trader pricing currently reflects incumbency advantages and party cohesion over potential late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAhmed Aliyu 89%
Manir Muhammad Dan Iya 5%
Mustapha Shehu 2.5%
Abdulrrahim Chindo <1%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Ahmed Aliyu
89%
Manir Muhammad Dan Iya
5%
Mustapha Shehu
2%
Abdulrrahim Chindo
<1%
Ahmed Aliyu 89%
Manir Muhammad Dan Iya 5%
Mustapha Shehu 2.5%
Abdulrrahim Chindo <1%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Ahmed Aliyu
$2,226 Vol.
89%
Manir Muhammad Dan Iya
$396 Vol.
5%
Mustapha Shehu
$472 Vol.
2%
Abdulrrahim Chindo
$246 Vol.
<1%
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sokoto State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Ahmed Aliyu, the incumbent APC governor of Sokoto State, holds an 88% implied probability in the market due to unified party endorsement secured through a May 2026 consensus affirmation as the APC nominee. This positioning stems from visible progress on infrastructure, security, and his 9-point agenda, alongside APC organizational strength in the state. Opposition remains fragmented, with figures such as former governor Aminu Tambuwal shifting to the ADC and a wide field of other candidates—including Manir Muhammad Dan Iya at 5% and Mustapha Shehu at 2.5%—showing limited coordinated traction or statewide support. The February 6, 2027, INEC vote date and the large roster of untested names at 50% underscore ongoing uncertainty, though trader pricing currently reflects incumbency advantages and party cohesion over potential late shifts.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sokoto State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$3,340End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sokoto State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Ahmed Aliyu, the incumbent APC governor of Sokoto State, holds an 88% implied probability in the market due to unified party endorsement secured through a May 2026 consensus affirmation as the APC nominee. This positioning stems from visible progress on infrastructure, security, and his 9-point agenda, alongside APC organizational strength in the state. Opposition remains fragmented, with figures such as former governor Aminu Tambuwal shifting to the ADC and a wide field of other candidates—including Manir Muhammad Dan Iya at 5% and Mustapha Shehu at 2.5%—showing limited coordinated traction or statewide support. The February 6, 2027, INEC vote date and the large roster of untested names at 50% underscore ongoing uncertainty, though trader pricing currently reflects incumbency advantages and party cohesion over potential late shifts.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sokoto State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Volume
$3,340End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ahmed Aliyu, the incumbent APC governor of Sokoto State, holds an 88% implied probability in the market due to unified party endorsement secured through a May 2026 consensus affirmation as the APC nominee. This positioning stems from visible progress on infrastructure, security, and his 9-point agenda, alongside APC organizational strength in the state. Opposition remains fragmented, with figures such as former governor Aminu Tambuwal shifting to the ADC and a wide field of other candidates—including Manir Muhammad Dan Iya at 5% and Mustapha Shehu at 2.5%—showing limited coordinated traction or statewide support. The February 6, 2027, INEC vote date and the large roster of untested names at 50% underscore ongoing uncertainty, though trader pricing currently reflects incumbency advantages and party cohesion over potential late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions