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Elections·New Zealand Election

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

icon for Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
Elections·New Zealand Election

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

Chris Hipkins 51%

Christopher Luxon 44%

Nicola Willis 3.5%

Winston Peters 2.0%

Polymarket

$26,738 Vol.

Chris Hipkins 51%

Christopher Luxon 44%

Nicola Willis 3.5%

Winston Peters 2.0%

Polymarket

$26,738 Vol.

icon for Chris Hipkins

Chris Hipkins

$9,405 Vol.

51%

icon for Christopher Luxon

Christopher Luxon

$7,638 Vol.

44%

icon for Nicola Willis

Nicola Willis

$3,670 Vol.

4%

icon for Winston Peters

Winston Peters

$2,070 Vol.

2%

icon for David Seymour

David Seymour

$1,222 Vol.

1%

icon for Chlöe Swarbrick

Chlöe Swarbrick

$1,326 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carmel Sepuloni

Carmel Sepuloni

$1,407 Vol.

<1%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Labour and National trading narrow leads ahead of the November 7, 2026 general election, with both major parties losing ground to smaller players under New Zealand’s MMP system. Christopher Luxon’s position has been pressured by internal National Party tensions, including a second caucus confidence vote in August that he survived, alongside declining personal approval ratings. Chris Hipkins holds a slim edge in preferred prime minister measures, though Labour has struggled to convert government unpopularity into decisive gains. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid, with the Opportunities Party polling near the threshold and potentially holding kingmaker influence after Luxon ruled out cooperation. These factors keep implied probabilities for Hipkins and Luxon closely matched in trader assessments.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,738
End Date
Nov 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Labour and National trading narrow leads ahead of the November 7, 2026 general election, with both major parties losing ground to smaller players under New Zealand’s MMP system. Christopher Luxon’s position has been pressured by internal National Party tensions, including a second caucus confidence vote in August that he survived, alongside declining personal approval ratings. Chris Hipkins holds a slim edge in preferred prime minister measures, though Labour has struggled to convert government unpopularity into decisive gains. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid, with the Opportunities Party polling near the threshold and potentially holding kingmaker influence after Luxon ruled out cooperation. These factors keep implied probabilities for Hipkins and Luxon closely matched in trader assessments.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,738
End Date
Nov 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Chris Hipkins" at 51%, followed by "Christopher Luxon" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" has generated $26.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" is "Chris Hipkins" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Christopher Luxon" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.