New Zealand’s MMP electoral system typically requires parties to negotiate coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements to form government after the 7 November 2026 election. The incumbent National-led coalition (National, ACT, and NZ First) holds office following the 2023 result, but recent polling shows a tight contest with Labour, the Greens, and smaller parties. Latest surveys indicate National near 30 percent, Labour close behind, NZ First around 10 percent, ACT near 8 percent, and the rising Opportunity Party (TOP) potentially holding balance-of-power influence. Cost-of-living pressures, fiscal policy, and immigration remain central campaign themes. Post-election negotiations will determine which combinations secure the numbers needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, with the final writ return expected in early December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
Green Party
54%
ACT New Zealand
46%
National Party
42%
Labour Party
39%
Te Pāti Māori
43%
New Zealand First Party
42%
$1,160 Vol.
Green Party
$48 Vol.
54%
ACT New Zealand
$8 Vol.
46%
National Party
$572 Vol.
42%
Labour Party
$476 Vol.
39%
Te Pāti Māori
$50 Vol.
43%
New Zealand First Party
$7 Vol.
42%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.New Zealand’s MMP electoral system typically requires parties to negotiate coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements to form government after the 7 November 2026 election. The incumbent National-led coalition (National, ACT, and NZ First) holds office following the 2023 result, but recent polling shows a tight contest with Labour, the Greens, and smaller parties. Latest surveys indicate National near 30 percent, Labour close behind, NZ First around 10 percent, ACT near 8 percent, and the rising Opportunity Party (TOP) potentially holding balance-of-power influence. Cost-of-living pressures, fiscal policy, and immigration remain central campaign themes. Post-election negotiations will determine which combinations secure the numbers needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, with the final writ return expected in early December.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,160End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.New Zealand’s MMP electoral system typically requires parties to negotiate coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements to form government after the 7 November 2026 election. The incumbent National-led coalition (National, ACT, and NZ First) holds office following the 2023 result, but recent polling shows a tight contest with Labour, the Greens, and smaller parties. Latest surveys indicate National near 30 percent, Labour close behind, NZ First around 10 percent, ACT near 8 percent, and the rising Opportunity Party (TOP) potentially holding balance-of-power influence. Cost-of-living pressures, fiscal policy, and immigration remain central campaign themes. Post-election negotiations will determine which combinations secure the numbers needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, with the final writ return expected in early December.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Volume
$1,160End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...New Zealand’s MMP electoral system typically requires parties to negotiate coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements to form government after the 7 November 2026 election. The incumbent National-led coalition (National, ACT, and NZ First) holds office following the 2023 result, but recent polling shows a tight contest with Labour, the Greens, and smaller parties. Latest surveys indicate National near 30 percent, Labour close behind, NZ First around 10 percent, ACT near 8 percent, and the rising Opportunity Party (TOP) potentially holding balance-of-power influence. Cost-of-living pressures, fiscal policy, and immigration remain central campaign themes. Post-election negotiations will determine which combinations secure the numbers needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, with the final writ return expected in early December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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