Montana's open U.S. Senate seat features a strongly Republican tilt in federal contests, reinforced by unified party support for nominee Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him ahead of the June primaries. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent of the vote, while recent polling averages through mid-August show him ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead by double-digit margins, with opposition support remaining fragmented. Race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent for a Republican outcome reflects these structural and polling dynamics. Realistic challenges could include Bodnar consolidating non-Republican voters or late-cycle shifts in turnout or messaging that narrow Alme’s current lead before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 93%
Independent 7.7%
Democrat <1%
$115,269 Vol.
$115,269 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
93%
Independent
8%
Democrat
1%
Republican 93%
Independent 7.7%
Democrat <1%
$115,269 Vol.
$115,269 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$58,331 Vol.
93%
Independent
$16,769 Vol.
8%
Democrat
$40,169 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's open U.S. Senate seat features a strongly Republican tilt in federal contests, reinforced by unified party support for nominee Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him ahead of the June primaries. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent of the vote, while recent polling averages through mid-August show him ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead by double-digit margins, with opposition support remaining fragmented. Race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent for a Republican outcome reflects these structural and polling dynamics. Realistic challenges could include Bodnar consolidating non-Republican voters or late-cycle shifts in turnout or messaging that narrow Alme’s current lead before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$115,269End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's open U.S. Senate seat features a strongly Republican tilt in federal contests, reinforced by unified party support for nominee Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him ahead of the June primaries. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent of the vote, while recent polling averages through mid-August show him ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead by double-digit margins, with opposition support remaining fragmented. Race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent for a Republican outcome reflects these structural and polling dynamics. Realistic challenges could include Bodnar consolidating non-Republican voters or late-cycle shifts in turnout or messaging that narrow Alme’s current lead before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$115,269End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's open U.S. Senate seat features a strongly Republican tilt in federal contests, reinforced by unified party support for nominee Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him ahead of the June primaries. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent of the vote, while recent polling averages through mid-August show him ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead by double-digit margins, with opposition support remaining fragmented. Race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent for a Republican outcome reflects these structural and polling dynamics. Realistic challenges could include Bodnar consolidating non-Republican voters or late-cycle shifts in turnout or messaging that narrow Alme’s current lead before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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