Meta's aggressive 2026 AI capital expenditure guidance of $130–145 billion, which contributed to a Q2 earnings miss on EPS despite 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment around the $1.25–1.50 trillion market cap range. The resulting free cash flow compression and post-earnings selloff have kept shares near $550, with current capitalization hovering around $1.4 trillion. AI-driven ad performance improvements and potential monetization of excess compute capacity offer longer-term offsets, yet near-term margin pressure and the October 28 Q3 earnings release—expected to show continued high spending—limit upside conviction in higher brackets while supporting the clustered mid-range probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.25-$1.50T 42%
$1.00-$1.25T 28%
<$1.00T 15.4%
$2.25T+ 12.2%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<$1.00T
15%
$1.00-$1.25T
28%
$1.25-$1.50T
42%
$1.50-$1.75T
11%
$1.75-$2.00T
11%
$2.00-$2.25T
12%
$2.25T+
12%
$1.25-$1.50T 42%
$1.00-$1.25T 28%
<$1.00T 15.4%
$2.25T+ 12.2%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
15%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
28%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
42%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
11%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
11%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
12%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta's aggressive 2026 AI capital expenditure guidance of $130–145 billion, which contributed to a Q2 earnings miss on EPS despite 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment around the $1.25–1.50 trillion market cap range. The resulting free cash flow compression and post-earnings selloff have kept shares near $550, with current capitalization hovering around $1.4 trillion. AI-driven ad performance improvements and potential monetization of excess compute capacity offer longer-term offsets, yet near-term margin pressure and the October 28 Q3 earnings release—expected to show continued high spending—limit upside conviction in higher brackets while supporting the clustered mid-range probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta's aggressive 2026 AI capital expenditure guidance of $130–145 billion, which contributed to a Q2 earnings miss on EPS despite 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment around the $1.25–1.50 trillion market cap range. The resulting free cash flow compression and post-earnings selloff have kept shares near $550, with current capitalization hovering around $1.4 trillion. AI-driven ad performance improvements and potential monetization of excess compute capacity offer longer-term offsets, yet near-term margin pressure and the October 28 Q3 earnings release—expected to show continued high spending—limit upside conviction in higher brackets while supporting the clustered mid-range probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta's aggressive 2026 AI capital expenditure guidance of $130–145 billion, which contributed to a Q2 earnings miss on EPS despite 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment around the $1.25–1.50 trillion market cap range. The resulting free cash flow compression and post-earnings selloff have kept shares near $550, with current capitalization hovering around $1.4 trillion. AI-driven ad performance improvements and potential monetization of excess compute capacity offer longer-term offsets, yet near-term margin pressure and the October 28 Q3 earnings release—expected to show continued high spending—limit upside conviction in higher brackets while supporting the clustered mid-range probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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