Skip to main content
icon for Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Politics·South Korea

Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

icon for Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Politics·South Korea

Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

9% chance
Polymarket

$21,566 Vol.

9% chance
Polymarket

$21,566 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung faces structural barriers that make impeachment before 2027 highly unlikely in the eyes of traders.** South Korea’s constitution requires an impeachment motion to secure a majority in the National Assembly to be proposed and at least two-thirds (200 of 300 seats) to pass before advancing to the Constitutional Court. The ruling Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 seats, giving it effective control to block any such effort. A June 2026 citizen petition calling for Lee’s impeachment over suspended criminal cases collected more than 100,000 signatures but went nowhere in committee, consistent with the party’s majority. Lee’s approval rating has fallen to around 40 percent amid housing-policy disputes, judicial-nomination clashes, and security concerns, yet these pressures have not produced cross-party momentum for removal. Opposition calls to resume Lee’s pre-presidency trials and accusations of judicial interference remain partisan exchanges without legislative traction. Traders price the current “No” outcome at 90.8 percent because the combination of seat arithmetic, procedural thresholds, and absence of bipartisan consensus creates durable protection for the presidency through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$21,566
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung faces structural barriers that make impeachment before 2027 highly unlikely in the eyes of traders.** South Korea’s constitution requires an impeachment motion to secure a majority in the National Assembly to be proposed and at least two-thirds (200 of 300 seats) to pass before advancing to the Constitutional Court. The ruling Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 seats, giving it effective control to block any such effort. A June 2026 citizen petition calling for Lee’s impeachment over suspended criminal cases collected more than 100,000 signatures but went nowhere in committee, consistent with the party’s majority. Lee’s approval rating has fallen to around 40 percent amid housing-policy disputes, judicial-nomination clashes, and security concerns, yet these pressures have not produced cross-party momentum for removal. Opposition calls to resume Lee’s pre-presidency trials and accusations of judicial interference remain partisan exchanges without legislative traction. Traders price the current “No” outcome at 90.8 percent because the combination of seat arithmetic, procedural thresholds, and absence of bipartisan consensus creates durable protection for the presidency through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$21,566
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Related

icon for Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

11%
icon for Lai Ching-te impeached by December 31?

Lai Ching-te impeached by December 31?

3%
icon for Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

8%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" has generated $21.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.